My prognosticating abilities have been documented, to some degree, on this very blog–sometimes my accuracy can be called into question (see: Bowl-O-Rama these past two years), but occasionally, I get close enough to claim success.

Last year at this time, in the “And Football Never Left!” post, I forecasted an 11-5 record for the 2010 Green Bay Packers simply by looking at the team’s recently released schedule.  Given the unexpected rash of injuries that factored in the the team’s actual 10-6 mark, I’m calling that incredibly acccurate…at the very least, just as good as your average weather forecast.

Tuesday, the NFL released its 2011 schedule.  Rather than dwell on the fact that Wednesday is day 40 of the NFL lockout, I’m taking the optimistic approach and assuming there will be a 2011 season with real NFL players and not replacements.  I don’t want to be seeing Keanu Reeves at QB for any team–although a Gene Hackman news conference might be interesting.

Speaking of assumptions, I’m going to project that there’s no way the 2011 Packers will be as injury-prone as their 2010 counterparts, and that QB Aaron Rodgers plays in all 16 games.   There are no shortage of  interesting variables: how the Packers handle the greatly increased expections, can Mike McCarthy maintain locker room harmony, will any 2011 Packers draftees be impact players, which other NFC teams improve themselves (via the draft, free agency, or through trades), along with my personal favorite: where will the Vikings play their home games?

September:  Green Bay’s reward for winning a  Super Bowl is a very interesting three-game stretch to start the season: the Saints game could be a shootout, the trip to Carolina has all the makings of a “trap” game, while Soldier Field will be as hostile as ever.   Anything from 3-0 to 0-3 is possible, but I’m going to say the Packers win that shootout with the Saints, they sleepwalk through 60 minutes vs. the Panthers but still win, before losing a close one in Chicago, as Bears QB Caleb Hanie leads a dramatic last-minute TD drive.   Yes, I just said that…but it’s not as unbelievable as it would have been if I’d said it last year, correct?

October: Green Bay responds to a week’s worth of pessimism from the Wisconsin media by dominating Denver at Lambeau Field.   However, after a week’s worth of praise from the Wisconsin scribes and talking heads, the Pack lays an absolute egg in the Georgia Dome, as Matt Ryan throws 4 TD passes, while Rodgers is picked 3 times.  That loss gets the national media off Green Bay’s back, while the Wisconsin press box cynics begin howling for changes up and down the Packers organization.   Fortunately for all concerned, the Rams provide no resistance the next week at Lambeau, as the Pack rolls to an easy win.   Then, after some tense early moments at TCF Bank Stadium the following week (Jared Allen sacks Rodgers on the first play of the game), the GB QB responds with a 5-TD performance in a one-sided win, as Vikings fans show the ability to exit an outdoor stadium just as quickly as they used to do in the Metrodome.   It all adds up to an 3-1 month, and an overall record of 5-2 heading into the bye week.

November: Moving month in the NFL, and the Packers move right back into the Super Bowl conversation by rolling to four straight wins.   Green Bay pulls out a win in San Diego, then survives a 3-TD night from Vikings QB Jake Locker (thanks to 4 TD passes from Rodgers and 3 rushing TD’s from James Starks), before two workmanlike performances to beat both the Bucs and Lions.    Wisconsin scribes are heaping praise on the 9-2 Packers, and drafting their “dynasty” stories for publication.

December: Those stories are scrapped after a stink bomb in the Meadowlands (then again, maybe that’s the natural aroma of northern New Jersey), as the Giants roll all over the Pack.  By now, the national media has labeled Green Bay a “one-year wonder,”  and resulting herd mentality spills over into the Wisconsin print & broadcast types, so much so that a gray-bearded, retired QB begins throwing passes to HS players down in Mississippi–and the national media shows up to document the proceedings.   Again, the schedule is favorable to the Packers, and they respond with decisive home wins over the Raiders, Bears, and Lions, sandwiched around another inexplicable road loss to the Chiefs.   The aforementioned gray-bearded former QB stops throwing around his football, and goes back to cutting his grass.

Final record:   12-4, good enough to win the NFC North over the 10-6 Bears, the 8-8 Lions, and the 5-11 Vikings.

Agree? Disagree?  Have your own expectations?  Feel free to post those in the comments section, below.

-BOB BRADOVICH

Posted under Hometown Sports

So much happens at the high school level in the month of March, there’s precious little time to reflect on what’s happening.   For that reason, as we wait for the snow to melt and the spring sports to commence, here’s an alphabetical look back:

A: Altoona.  The Railroaders were a team characterized by their head coach, Ryan Wundrow, as “…not the biggest, not the quickest, and sometimes, not the smartest…”, but they got it figured out just in time to win the WIAA Division 3 girls basketball state title.   The Railroaders were resilient during their final week, despite a season-ending knee injury to backup guard Lisa Peck, a bus breakdown on the way to Madison, and an illness to point guard Bethany Reyzer, who set an unofficial tournament record for most stats recorded following a 5-minute hug of a garbage can.   A gutsy group of gym rats (a term of affection), who played their absolute best on the absolute biggest stage for a HS team.

B: Bowe, Heather.  Girls basketball fans around Eau Claire knew all about the talented junior from Regis, but now the secret’s out statewide.  Bowe put up monster numbers in two wins at the Kohl Center, leading the Ramblers to a WIAA Division 4 state title: 53 points (19-37 FG, 15-19 FT, plus 31 rebounds).  Note to whoever takes over as head coach of the Wisconsin women’s basketball program: you may want to make calling Bowe (who verbally committed to the UW and former coach Lisa Stone) one of your first priorities.

C: Clayton. A mere dot on the map of Wisconsin, but the small community in the northwest corner of the state is growing in stature among the better boys high school basketball programs.  The Bears never have overwhelming talent (although ’10 grad Taylor Dayton and ’11 Tyler Ketz could have played just about anywhere), but this has become a program that gets results (e.g., 3 straight unbeaten seasons in the Central Lakeland Conference).  Clayton players are fundamentally sound, competitive, respectful, and hard workers.  Clearly, they’ve all grown under the tutelage of the many dedicated people who help out with the youth programs.

D: Don Kerr.  The late, long-time TV network statistician may be gone, but certainly not forgotten by anyone who worked on the broadcast crew. Somewhere, Don must have been smiling, watching Merrill play in the boys basketball tourney.

E: Engh, Jenna. The diminutive Westby guard provided the most memorable moment of the girls tournament, by hitting a desperation corner 3 to send the Norse to overtime against Regis.

F: Final Countdown.  Still, the most popular song of high school pep bands (right after the Star Spangled Banner), but the classic ballad from 1980′s hair band Europe is getting some competition from the likes of “Don’t Stop Believin’” and other 80′s classics.  Why do I get the feeling that the majority of pep band directors grew up in that decade?

G: Grantsburg. Much like Altoona was at the girls tournament, the Pirates were undersized and underrated coming to Madison, but they left with a trophy and the respect of a lot of courtside observers for the fearless way they competed.

H: Hunter Scott, Eau Claire Memorial’s talented forward, who capped off his senior season with another outstanding state tournament performance.  In his career, Scott skated in 7 state tourney games with the Old Abes, scoring a total of 7 goals.

I: Interscholastic.  The third, and perhaps the most-overlooked letter in the acronym representing the Wisconsin Interscholastic Athletic Association.  For all the howling that fans do over brackets, seedings, schedules, venues, tournaments, and officiating, it’s always good to remember that at the core of all this, these are high school students.

J: Jesperson, Paul.  I don’t know what it is about certain in-state recruits on their way to Division I college programs (e.g., Evan Anderson), but it brings out the worst in certain fans, who feel the need to bash these players for supposedly not being good enough to earn a D-I scholarship–even though they have one in hand.  Jesperson silenced some of those critics with a stellar, 27-point performance to lift underdog Merrill past heavily-favored and previously unbeaten Waunakee in a Division 2 state semifinal.

K: Kujak, Hank.  If there were an award for Best Stand-Up Guy on a Hard Luck Team, it goes to the multi-talented Blair-Taylor standout, who will finish his career at state with an 0-3 record, but with very good stats in those three losses: 52 points, 12 rebounds, 0 excuses, and 0 complaints about any of the three journeys.

L: La Bamba. Preferred non-Kohl Center eatery for the WIAA TV broadcasters.   Anyone battling a cold can benefit from the hot sauce that not only provides spicy flavor, but also has decongestant properties.

M: Multi-sport athletes.  There were plenty who graced the floor of the Kohl Center, and the ice of Veterans Memorial Coliseum.  Can it stay that way in the future?

N: Nicolet. The Knights get a ton of credit for opting, prior to the season, to play “up” one division.  For the record, it was a unanimous vote in favor of the move by the players.  They must have known something, since the end result was a state title.

O:  Overtime. You want drama? How about this for drama: a 2 OT quarterfinal and an OT semifinal in the boys hockey tourney, and a 4-OT classic in the girls hockey championship game; an OT game in the boys basketball D4 semi’s, and an amazing 3-OT matchup in the D1 championship; plus 2 OT games on Thursday of the girls hoops tourney.

P: Patten, Ron.  The smooth senior from Whitefish Bay, who once considered quitting the game of basketball in the 9th grade, helped his Blue Dukes to a Division 2 title by racking up 33 points and 13 boards in two wins.  Patten may have had interest from college basketball programs prior to the tournament, but I’m guessing his phone was absolutely blowing up after his display of overall skills–the same goes for his coach’s phone.

Q: Quiet.  What you will not find inside any WIAA tournament venue in the month of March.

R: Randolph. If it hasn’t already, this school should build a new trophy case, simply to store all the hardware accumulated by its boys basketball program.  The Rockets’ 2011 WIAA Division 5 championship is the school’s state-record 9th title, in 14 trips to state.

S: Susens, Pete.  The widely-respected Wausau West boys hockey coach now has a state title, after becoming Wisconsin’s career leader in coaching wins.

T: Tuesday was supposed to be super for WIAA Division 1 teams, but a March snowstorm across the northern part of the state caused two of those girls games to be postponed to Thursday, a rescheduling that spawned a flood of complaining across message boards.

U: Unity.  I have to be honest, I don’t remember this school district have much success in any sport over my 15 years in Eau Claire, so the Eagles deserve a shout-out for winning a boys basketball regional title and advancing to a sectional final.

V: Valley, St. Croix.  The co-op powerhouse in WIAA girls hockey, which has now won three straight state titles under the direction of head coach Matt Cranston.   Clearly, this program been outstanding in terms of collecting hardware, but the Fusion has raised the overall level of play in the sport.   Sure, the game might be a bit slower than what the boys play, but watch an SCV game sometime, and you’ll see the Fusion is a very skilled team that runs systems (forecheck, cycles, breakouts, neutral zone traps) similar to those at the highest levels of hockey.

W:  Wundrow, Ryan.  Altoona’s unassuming girls basketball coach freely admits that there are plenty of great girls basketball coaches across the state who’ve forgotten more about the game than he knows.  Still, so much of coaching is motivating, and Wundrow, for a second straight year, got his players to play their best at exactly the right time.  In 2010, that led to a sectional title.  In 2011, it was the WIAA Division 3 state championship.   The Rails were no lock to make it to Madison in either season, but they saved their best for last.  Wundrow was recognized for his work by being named the AP’s 2011 girls basketball coach of the year.

X: Xylophone. One of many instruments hauled in and out of the Kohl Center & Veteran’s Memorial Coliseum by the students in the pep bands who provided entertainment before, during, and after most of the games in the state tournaments. (I know, it’s a reach, but you try coming up with a word or name pertinent to the WIAA tournaments that starts with the letter “X”)

Y: Youth. What we celebrate during the month of March.

Z:  Zoelle, Reece.  Some may remember the timeout called by the De Pere senior that led to a technical foul (his Redbirds team was out of timeouts) with :06 left in the first OT of the Division 1 state title game, which allowed Madison Memorial’s Brendan Ortiz to sink the game-tying free throws, forcing a 2nd OT…but I recall Zoelle (19 points, 3-7 3′s) as being a big reason why De Pere was even in that game.  He was also a major factor in the Redbirds’ semifinal win (19 points, 2-3 3′s), and he hit big shots in clutch situations.  Plus, who didn’t like the “Holy Zoelle” chants from the De Pere fans?

Posted under Hometown Sports