Midterm Baseball: Surprises and Disappointments

I have to apologize for taking a week off from the blog. With the NBA and NHL playoffs, on top of some good baseball action, let’s just say I was…distracted. Lost in the excitement of the playoffs and the NFL Draft was the start of the fantasy baseball season. With more than a month’s worth of stats, you’re either in love with your fantasy team, or want to blow it up. Below, I’ve provided a list of guys you want on your team, and some that you don’t.

Surprises

C Rod Barajas, Mets: .260, 18 runs, 10 HR, 24 RBI

Last season, Barajas batted .226 while playing for Toronto. While he may never hit for average, you have to be impressed with the pop in his bat early on. At this pace, he will crush his previous high of 21 homeruns in 2005. He’s owned in about half of fantasy leagues.

1B Ty Wigginton, Orioles: .300, 13 HR, 31 RBI

Not only is Wigginton simply raking it early on, but he has eligibility at three different positions. Basically, he’s fantasy gold. His 13 dingers are second in all of baseball. If he stays healthy, he could easily post over 30 homers.

2B Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: .257, 31 runs, 13 doubles, 12 HR, 25 RBI

Maybe all he needed was a change in scenery, but somewhere in his move from Atlanta to Arizona, Johnson found his power. Already this season he’s just four homers short of matching his career high. His doubles are also above average, which indicates he’s not just swinging for the fences every time.

3B Casey McGehee, Brewers: .313, 9 HR, 38 RBI

In my Brewers Breakdown post, I told you that McGehee was a good guy to have on your bench. Scratch that though, he’s showing that he deserves to be in your starting lineup every day. His 38 RBIs are best among all third basemen. Even more impressive, he’s doing it without striking out. A very impressive start for the bald basher.

SS Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays: .275, 10 HR, 30 RBI

There’s something going on north of the border. Not only does the team lead the majors in homeruns, but guys like Gonzalez, who are mainly known as defensive players, are all the sudden hitting for big-time power. Something in the water? Maple syrup? Whatever it is, Gonzalez is on his way to a career year.

OF Andre Ethier, Dodgers: .392, 11 HR, 38 RBI

Fantasy owners always knew Ethier could hit. But no one saw him improving his batting average by 120 points. And he’s not just hitting singles either, having already posted 11 homers. Maybe even more impressive to stat geeks is that Ethier is doing it all with only 16 strikeouts (last season, he was sat down 116 times).

P Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies: .99 ERA, 9 quality starts, 8-1 record, 58 K

Jimenez, much like Ethier, was always a good player. But this year, he’s taken his game to another world, and is easily in the conversation with fantasy stalwarts Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum as best pitcher in the game. True, he pitched a perfect game this season, but maybe the most impressive thing about his season is the consistency he’s bringing: he’s pitched six innings or more in each of his nine starts this season.

Disappointments

C A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox: .220, 2 HR, 13 RBI

Pierzynski has always had a lot of flair, but at least there was some substance to back it up. Not the case so far this year. It’s not surprising his power numbers are down, considering the wear on his body from a career behind the plate, but he’s not hitting in general. His .220 average is troubling after hovering around .300 much of his career.

1B Lance Berkman, Astros: .233, 5 HR, 14 RBI

There just isn’t much to be happy about in Houston. Between Roy Oswalt seeking a trade and Berkman putting up his worst numbers since his rookie season, it’s hard to believe this team was a contender for a number of years. Speaking of his rookie year, Berkman’s numbers were actually a little better across the board through 30 games. That’s not a good sign.

2B Gordon Beckham, White Sox: .187, 1 HR, 9 RBI

Beckham is only in his second year, and still possessing immense potential at the plate. But, by all accounts, this was supposed to be his breakout year. A sub-.200 average and very little pop is not what fantasy owners, let alone White Sox fans, expected. There could still be a bright future for Beckham, but it’s clearly not now.

3B Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: .160, 4 HR, 20 RBI

These are clearly not the numbers you’d expected from Ramirez. Through his career, he’s been a consistent .300, 25, 100 kind of guy. He’s battled injuries the past two seasons, and maybe that has something to do with his dreadful .269 slugging percentage. Still, as a cleanup hitter in a potentially potent lineup, fantasy owners expect more.

SS Yunel Escobar, Braves: .180, 0 HR, 8 RBI

A career .293 hitter, Escobar has struggled to put in the ball in play this year. His batting average is also affecting his plate discipline. Coming off a career, and contract, year, more was expected of Escobar.

OF Carlos Lee, Astros: .200, 5 HR, 16 RBI

Much like his teammate Berkman, Lee is trending in the wrong direction. El Caballo for his career is a .300, 30, 110 kind of guy. Those are the numbers you expect from a guy getting $19 million a year. Not the case this year. In fact, much like Berkman, he’s in line to post his lowest power numbers since his rookie year. There could still be hope, as he’s hit 4 homeruns in the last 15 games. But you might want to take caution with Lee.

P Trevor Hoffman, Brewers: 13.15 ERA, 5 saves, 5 blown saves, 1-3 record

Brewer fans are not at all surprised to see Hoffman’s name here. When Hells Bells blares out of the speakers at Miller Park, it scares Brewers fans more than opposing batters. Hoffman’s five blown saves are just two shy of his career high. His ERA has ballooned to over 13.00 after never topping 4.00 in his career. Because of a lack of bullpen depth, Hoffman will get more chances to close for Milwaukee, but he won’t get the same opportunity on many fantasy teams.

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This post was written by Stephen on May 23, 2010

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Rating the Draft

Another draft has come and gone, which means instead of rating the prospects or the drafts, we can finally evaluate how the teams did. Detroit was the class of the NFC North, which is something that would have seemed inconceivable just a couple years ago. They got impact players at some big position, and selected the best player in the draft in Ndamukong Suh. Green Bay and Minnesota didn’t need to fill a lot of needs in this draft, and both did a good job of adding depth. Chicago didn’t have a lot of picks, but made the most of each of them.

Green Bay Packers: B-

RD PK (OVR) Name Position School
1 23(23) Bryan Bulaga OT Iowa
2 24(56) Michael Neal DT Purdue
3 7(71) Morgan Burnett S Georgia Tech
5 23(154) Andrew Quarless TE Penn State
5 38(169) Marshall Newhouse G TCU
6 24(193) James Stark RB Buffalo
7 23(230) C.J. Wilson DE East Carolina

GM Ted Thompson could not have been happier when Bryan Bulaga slid down to Green Bay at 23. As outlined in the ‘Rate the Drafters’ blog, Thompson has always followed the ‘best player available’ philosophy. In this case, it just so happened that Bulaga was the best player on the board and fit a team need. Bulaga will provide toughness and a good work ethic to an offensive line that struggled last season. He should compete for playing time right away. He could slide inside to guard next season before taking over for either Clifton or Tauscher.

After their first pick, the Packers draft took a turn. They reached for Michael Neal, who will move outside in the 3-4. The problem with that is 3-4 ends are supposed to be stout against the run, one thing Neal was not in college. Also, Thompson picking a player with work ethic problems is certainly not going to excite Green Bay fans after having to watch Justin Harrell jog during practices (and infrequently during games) for the past three years.

This was an interesting draft to grade because Green Bay, regularly one of the league’s youngest teams, didn’t enter the draft with a ton of needs. Burnett was a safe pick, but still needs a year or two to improve. Newhouse has good size, but needs to work on his technique. Starks has the potential to be a steal for Green Bay. The big question is whether he can remain healthy.

In all, Green Bay received a B- minus because, although not entering the draft with a lot of needs, they failed to address one of their biggest ones: a pass-rushing linebacker to play opposite Clay Matthews. They also could have also used another cornerback.

Minnesota Vikings: B

RD PK (OVR) Name Position School
2 2(34) Chris Cook CB Virginia
2 19(51) Toby Gerhart RB Stanford
4 2(100) Everson Griffen DE USC
5 30(161) Chris DeGeare G Wake Forest
5 36(167) Nate Triplett ILB Minnesota
6 30(199) Joe Webb QB UAB
7 7(214) Mickey Schuler TE Penn State
7 30(237) Ryan D’Imperio ILB Rutgers

Minnesota entered the draft in a very similar position to Green Bay, with not a lot of holes to fill. The Vikings got good value on CB Chris Cook after trading back with Detroit. He provides good height (6’2”) and immediate depth behind Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffen. He was the highest rated player left on the Vikings board.

Toby Gerhart finished second in Heisman voting for a reason. He’s similar to Mike Alstott in that he’s a powerful downhill runner and a great fit as a goal line back. He will not add the pass-catching dimension that Chester Taylor did, but should take some of the workload off of do-it-all runner Adrian Peterson. At the very least, that should mean a little more tread on the tire at the end of the season, when Peterson generally starts to slow down.

Everson was a good value in the third round. He was projected as a potential first round pick, but fell because of character issues. That will scare off general managers in the first round, but it’s less of a pill to swallow in the third. He will provide depth behind Jared Allen and Ray Edwards. Chris DeGeare has the makeup of an NFL guard (6’3”, 325 lbs) but he did not always produce in college. Triplett has a high motor, and could help in special teams. Webb played QB in college, but will likely try to make the transition to wideout. Shuler and D’Imperio are limited athletes, and will likely not make the roster.

Overall, the team made solid selections in the first three rounds. The question for Minnesota is whether any of the rookies will make a big impact on the field next year.

Chicago Bears: B-

RD PK (OVR) Name Position School
3 11(75) Major Wright S Florida
4 11(109) Corey Wootton DE Northwestern
5 10(141) Joshua Moore CB Kansas State
6 12(181) Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan
7 11(218) J’marcus Webb OT West Texas A&M

The Bears traded away their first two picks for Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams. However, unlike Green Bay and Minnesota, they entered the draft with a number of needs. Safety was a position the team was targeting, and the Chicago brass was thrilled that Florida’s Major Wright was available. Wright showed good athleticism and toughness as a starter for a national title contender. Wright, coupled with newly (re)acquired Chris Harris, immediately improves the position.

In the fourth, the Bears took a chance on Wootton, who before an ACL tear in 2008, was looking like a potential first round pick. As he’s come back from the surgery, he’s shown toughness and a good motor. He has the frame and intensity to develop into a future starter. Same goes for Moore, who is at his best in bump and run coverage. Webb has a good frame, but will need a lot of individual attention to convert his size into production.

The dark horse of Chicago’s draft would have to be Dan LeFevour. A hometown kid who idolized the Bears growing up, put up some big-time numbers at Central Michigan. He’s got great mobility and a solid work ethic, but might struggle switching from a spread offense to the pro-style system run by the Bears.

The Bears did the best they could with limited picks. They never reached for a player and filled a few positions of need.

Detroit Lions: A

RD PK (OVR) Name Position School
1 2(2) Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
1 30(30) Jahvid Best RB California
3 2(66) Amari Spievey CB Iowa
4 30(128) Jason Fox OT Miami (FL)
7 6(213) Willie Young DE NC State
7 48(255) Tim Toone WR Weber State

Detroit entered the draft knowing that they needed an infusion of talent at just about every position. Picking near the top of every round, they did not need to reach to get a player. It’s funny to see how different something as simple as dropping Matt Millen has improved how the Lions draft. This was by far the best draft in the NFC North.

The Lions were in the enviable position at pick two to grab the best player in the draft, and have him also fill a need. Suh, whose name actually translates to ‘House of Spears,’ lives up to the name. He is an absolute beast in the middle. He is already slotted to start, and has the potential to be an elite run-stuffer who can also cause havoc for quarterbacks.

At the end of the first, the Lions moved back into the first round to get a player they had ranked ‘best’ on their board in Jahvid Best. Lame pun aside, Best showed incredible explosiveness while at Cal. He offers the big-play potential in the running game that the team sorely lacked in previous seasons. The big issue for Best is his health; he had trouble staying on the field in college. But if he can remain healthy, he will make an immediate impact on the Lions offense.

Amari Spievey was a good value pick in the third. He’s a physical corner who displayed good ball skills in college. He has a chance to compete for playing time as a rookie. Fox is big (6’7”) with good footwork for his size. The Lions’ offensive line is still a work in progress, so he has a chance to see the field right away. But he will need to work in the weight room before he can be counted on to give consistent effort. Willie Young will serve as a situational pass rusher as a rookie while he works on putting weight on his frame. If he does, he could become a dangerous defensive end in a few years. Toone is a slot receiver, but because he’s undersized and from a small school, he might have trouble making the transition to the NFL.

Overall, Detroit greatly increased the talent of their team in the last two drafts. They team now has a good nucleus of young stars (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Louis Delmas, Brandon Pettigrew and now Best and Suh). They have the players to become a big factor in the division in two or three years.

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This post was written by Stephen on May 8, 2010

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