Well, it’s all been building up to this. We started slow with some kickers, picked up steam with some diva receivers, but now we’re here: the guys who will win or lose your fantasy league. You could have had the top tight end, top receiver, yes – even the top kicker (sarcasm is a hobby of mine), but if you whiffed on these two positions, you didn’t win your league last year (right Matt Forte owners?).

As I laid out here: http://addins.wqow.com/blogs/sportsgeek/2010/08/fantasy-football-2010-draft-strategy, last season was dominated by the quarterbacks, with eight signal callers ranking in the top ten in scoring. That being said, running back remains the top valued position.  In this ‘blast from the past’ breakdown (or the blog cited above), you can see that the biggest disparity between best and 10^th best is in the backfield.

	QB	RB	WR
#1  Scorer	Aaron Rodgers : 327	Chris Johnson: 329	Andre Johnson: 205
#10 Scorer	Donovan McNabb: 223	Steven Jackson: 180	Sidney Rice: 169
Difference	124	149	36

But it’d be lazy for me to show a table that I already made. So let’s delve into another idea when drafting. It’s called the tier system, where you not only rank who you want to draft, but assign value to them.  Here’s a look at the tiers for backs last season.

Rank (Tier)	Player	2009 Points	Difference
#1 Scorer (1)	Chris Johnson	329	-
#10 Scorer (2)	Steven Jackson	180	-149
#20 Scorer (3)	LaDainian Tomlinson	146	-183
#30 Scorer (4)	Laurence Maroney	123	-206
#40 Scorer (5)	Mike Bell	86	-243

Yes, you can argue Chris Johnson had one of those special seasons last year, but you can also see there is a dramatic drop-off when you get below tier 3 (LT), let alone tier 2 (Steven Jackson). Drafting a running back high might not make you feel creative and risky, but it does make sense. Sorry Sebastian Janikowski, you’ll have to wait another year to be a first round pick.

For the signal callers, there might be more parity within the top 10 scorers, but you definitely don’t want to wait too long before picking your guy.

Rank (Tier)	Player	2009 Points	Difference
#1 Scorer (1)	Aaron Rodgers	327	-
#5 Scorer (1)	Matt Schaub	269	-58
#10 Scorer (2)	Donovan McNabb	223	-104
#15 Scorer (3)	David Garrard	203	-124
#20 Scorer (4)	Matt Hasselbeck	149	-178

There’s not a huge difference between Rodgers and Schaub, but after that the number starts to balloon. The difference between Rodgers and Hasselbeck over a fantasy season is just over eleven points a week (which if you didn’t know, is a lot). In summation, don’t wait to draft a quarterback.  If the top six signal callers are off the board, you should be getting worried.

 

2010 Quarterback Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB (Bye: 10): Rodgers has exceeded all expectations, topping 4,000 yards passing in each of his two seasons as starter, and there is no reason to believe that this year will be any different. The Packers return all of their top offensive players from last year’s explosive offense. Green Bay’s offensive line should be improved, meaning less pressure for ARodge. Scary thought.

2. Drew Brees, NO (Bye: 10): It’s no secret what the Saints want to do on offense – throw the ball all over the field. Brees is a master of the offense, and the unquestioned leader on the team. With a bevy of weapons, there’s not much not to like about Brees this season.

3. Tom Brady, NE (Bye: 5): Call this a minor hunch, but something tells me the Pats offense will look more like the 2007 version than the 2009 version. The difference? A completely healthy Brady. Even though he played in all 16 games last season, Brady was still rusty after missing all of the ’08 season. With Welker healthy, Randy Moss still flying past people, and some good veteran additions (like Tory Holt, who has the 11^th most receptions in NFL history), it could be an explosive year in Bean Town.

4. Peyton Manning, IND (Bye: 7): Consistent, talented, with an encyclopedia’s knowledge of football, there’s a lot to like about Manning.  Probably the most complete quarterback in NFL history.

5. Tony Romo, DAL (Bye: 4): He’s just got so many weapons; he could unintentionally throw for 4,000 yards. Seriously, it’s like watching ‘Ocean’s 11.’ There’s a star everywhere you look. Still not sure if that makes him Brad Pitt or George Clooney – either way, it should be a big season in Big D.

6. Matt Schaub, HOU (Bye: 7): The envy of many quarterbacks because he gets to throw to Andre Johnson. Last season, Schaub targeted Johnson a league high 171 times, and the QB-WR combo is among the best in the league. Remember, Schaub was traded to Houston because Atlanta was set at QB with Michael Vick. Betcha they wish they could have that one back.

7. Philip Rivers, SD (Bye: 10): Speaking of Vick, the Chargers traded the #1 pick (Vick) for the #5 pick (LT) and what amounted to Drew Brees. Hey Atlanta, want a do-over now? While LT and Brees are both no longer wearing the lightning bolt, San Diego is in good hands with Rivers. He’s quietly become an elite signal caller, and should continue to excel this season. His top wideout is out for the first three games, but that shouldn’t have a big impact. The Chargers face three of the worst pass defenses those weeks (KC, Jac, Sea).

8. Brett Favre, MIN (Bye: 4): He’s coming back. He’s got weapons. That’s all the attention I’m willing to give him.

9. Jay Cutler, CHI (Bye: 8): Mike Martz might be a mad-genius, difficult to work with, and an egomaniac, but he is a genius. He made Jon Kitna a good fantasy option when he was with Detroit for pete’s sake.

10. Joe Flacco, BAL (Bye: 8): I might not be wacko for Flacco, but he does represent the beginning of the end for top level fantasy options. With Anquan Boldin now in the purple and black, Flacco’s numbers will be his best yet in year three.

11. Donovan McNabb, WAS (Bye: 9): Mike Shannahan will give McNabb every opportunity to succeed. After giving his all to Philly, he’ll have some incentive to show that he’s over the hill.

12. Kevin Kolb, PHI (Bye: 8): In the two games he started last season, Kolb threw for 718 yards and four touchdowns. Impressive numbers to say the least. But he also threw three picks in those two games, and faced the 22^nd and 26^th ranked pass defenses. How will he do against an elite D? That’s the thing, no one knows.

13. Matt Ryan, ATL (Bye: 8): Many think Matty Light is ready to take his game to the next level. I don’t know about that, but he does have the luxury of throwing to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, and that’s good for something, right?

14. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Bye: 5): Makes bad decisions off the field, but good ones on it. He’ll pay for the first, you’ll benefit from the second (that is, once he’s served his suspension). If Big Ben is your choice, you’d better have a backup plan set early.

15. Eli Manning, NYG (Bye: 8): He’s not Peyton, but he’s pretty good in his own right. Manning really took a step forward last year; it’ll be interesting to see if he can build on that season. With Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, and Kevin Boss to throw to, he’s got the weapons to excel.

16. Carson Palmer, CIN (Bye: 6): Once an elite fantasy option, but injuries have taken a number of his prime years. Still, he’s healthy now and is surrounded by some very good weapons. If he can manage the egos on his team and stay on the field, he could skyrocket up these rankings. A very good sleeper pick.

17. Chad Henne, MIA (Bye: 5): Started picking up steam late in the season, plus he has a shiny new toy to play with in Brandon Marshall.  He has the chance to have a nice season in South Beach.

18. Vince Young, TEN (Bye: 9): I hate to ruin you preconceived notions, but Vince Young is actually a viable fantasy quarterback.  Despite playing in just eight games, VJ had a six game streak with at least one touchdown pass, and he’s always an option to score with his feet. He shouldn’t be your starter, but he’s a solid backup.

19. Matt Moore, CAR (Bye: 6): Speaking of guys who played well down the stretch, Moore came out of nowhere to add stability to Carolina’s offense. In the last four games, he threw for eight touchdowns and two picks. Might have been a fluke, but at this point, certainly worth the risk.

20. Jason Campbell, OAK (Bye: 10): Has been an unheralded player for a number of years now. Now he’s finally on a team that appreciates him. His completion percentage will be high, but there are simply not enough weapons for him to be a top option.

21. David Garrard, JAC (Bye: 9): Solid, not spectacular. Might be fighting for his job this season.

22. Matthew Stafford, DET (Bye: 7): He’s got a cannon for an arm, and actually has a decent set of pass catchers to work with. His interceptions will keep his totals down, but he’s certainly a guy to keep an eye on.

23. Matt Cassel, KC (Bye: 4): You have to figure Charlie Weis will improve the offense. The question is which Cassel is the right one, the 2008 or 2009 version? This season will go a long way to answering that question.

24. Matt Leinart, ARI (Bye: 6): He’s got weapons, a solid offensive line and plays in a pass-happy offense. The only thing keeping Leinart from succeeding is Leinart.

25. Kyle Orton, DEN (Bye: 9): A solid quarterback with subpar receiving options.

Deep Sleepers: Mark Sanchez (NYJ), Tavaris Jackson (MIN), Josh Freeman (TB), Jake Delhomme (CLE), Sam Bradford (STL)

 

 

 

2010 Running Back Rankings

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN (Bye: 4): I know everyone else will put Chris Johnson here, but no one has been as consistently good as AP.  In his first three seasons, Peterson has never rushed for less than 1300 yards and has scored 10 TDs or more each season (including a career high 18 last year). Even better for owners, he’s started becoming more of a threat in the pass game.

2. Chris Johnson, TEN (Bye: 9): CJ2K is predicting a 2500 yard season this year. The problem is, the team last year’s 0-6 start was the reason CJ got so many carries late in the season.  Of the other 2000 yard rushers, only Barry Sanders has even come close to repeating the numbers they put up the season before. The last two (Terrell Davis and Jamal Lewis) were injured the next season. Just saying.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC (Bye: 9): I love MJD as a fantasy back. After splitting time with Fred Taylor for much of his career, Jones-Drew showed that a 5-8 rusher could succeed in the NFL. His 15 rushing TDs were second in the league, and he’s the #1 option for the Jaguars offense.

4. Ray Rice, BAL (Bye: 8): Speaking of short backs who burst onto the scene last season, Ray Rice turned what was expected to be a three-back rotation into the Ray Rice show. My only concern is Willis McGahee’s 12 TDs dwarfed Rice’s 7. Think if he didn’t have to compete with that goal line poacher…

5. Frank Gore, SF (Bye: 9): When healthy, Gore is one of the scariest backs in all of football. He’s a great combination of size, speed and quickness. But injuries continue to be a concern.  He’s a guy you need to handcuff.

6. Steven Jackson, STL (Bye: 9): Steven Jackson’s best years have been completely wasted in St. Louis. I’m sorry, but it’s true. If he was even on a moderately good team, he’d regularly be in MVP talks. Darn you St. Louis, darn you! Still, your fantasy team is better than the Rams, and he will definitely be the star of your team.

7. Michael Turner, ATL (Bye: 8): He’ll be better than he was last year. Buy low, win high.

8. Ryan Grant, GB (Bye: 10): The unquestioned, #1 option in the Packers run game. In today’s game, it’s rare to see a single back system.  Grant accounted for 65% of Green Bay’s carries last season.  Expect at least 1200 yards and 10 TDs.

9. Cedric Benson, CIN (Bye: 6): Speaking of one-back systems, Benson has been Cincy’s workhorse since joining the Bengals. The team will throw the ball more in 2010, but the run is still the top choice in the bruising AFC North.

10. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT (Bye: 5): Hopefully you are picking up that I like single-back systems. Mendenhall, like the men above him, is the top option. He’ll be even better than his 09 campaign.

11. DeAngelo Williams, CAR (Bye: 6): An absolutely explosive back. Despite splitting carries with Jonathon Stewart, D-Will still had 1100 yards and seven scores.

12. Ryan Mathews, SD (Bye: 10): Has the size and speed to excel at this level. After trading up to #12 to select Mathews, the Bolts will give him every opportunity to succeed.

13. Jonathon Stewart, CAR (Bye: 6): It might surprise you, but the Daily Show actually had a better season last year than DeAngelo Williams. It’s crazy to think how good these guys could be if they didn’t split carries.

14. LeSean McCoy, PHI (Bye: 8): An all-around back in an explosive offense? What’s not to love?

15. Shonn Greene, NYJ (Bye: 7): For those who don’t know, I’m a huge Iowa Hawkeyes fan, so I love Greene. But even I want to preach caution with Greene. He’s been injury-prone in college and his first year, and will have some carries taken away by LT. Still, there might be greatness in Greene.

16. Matt Forte, CHI (Bye: 8): Yes, he hurt you last year. I get it. But in fantasy football, you need to have a short memory. Forte has looked outstanding in camp, and is a great receiving threat in Mike Martz’s new offense. This could be a big year for Forte.

17. Beanie Wells, ARI (Bye: 6): When Kurt Warner walked out the door, Wells’ value shot up. The Cards offense will still pass first, but with Leinart under center, expect much more of a run game.

18. Knowshon Moreno, DEN (Bye: 9): There are big expectations for the second year back.

19. Ronnie Brown, MIA (Bye: 5): He’s injury-prone, but he’s also very good. The Wildcat will not go away with Marshall in town. The Dolphins are still a pass-first team.

20. Brandon Jacobs, NYG (Bye: 8): Call it a hunch, but I think he bounces back with a solid season. And more importantly, you can probably get him for cheap.

21. Jamaal Charles, KC (Bye: 4): I’ve struggled with how high to put Charles. On one hand, I’m extremely impressed with the numbers he put up last season. On the other hand, Thomas Jones is listed as the top running back on the first depth chart. Keep an eye on that battle and choose accordingly.

22. Joseph Addai, IND (Bye: 7): Still atop the Colts’ depth chart. The team will put more of an onus on running the ball this year.

23. Pierre Thomas, NO (Bye: 10): See ‘Joseph Addai’ and put Saints’ where Colts’ is.

24. Ricky Williams, MIA (Bye: 5): Excelled with Ronnie Brown out, but his numbers weren’t nearly as good when splitting carries. You never want to hope someone gets injured, but…

25. Jerome Harrison, CLE (Bye: 8): Rushed for over 550 yards the last three games of the season. Just saying (again).

26. Felix Jones, DAL (Bye: 4): Not the Cowpokes top option, but he is the best one. His 5.9 yards per carry was among the best in the league.

27. Jahvid Best, DET (Bye: 7): If he remains healthy, he’ll put up some ridiculous numbers. But that’s a big if.

28. Justin Forsett, SEA (Bye: 5): He’ll get the first crack at being Seattle’s starter.

29. Clinton Portis, WAS (Bye: 9): See ‘Justin Forsett’ and replace Seattle’s with Washington’s.

30. Fred Jackson, BUF (Bye: 6): Will get the bulk of the Bills’ carries.

31. C.J. Spiller, BUF (Bye: 6): Might get the bulk of the Bills’ touchdowns.

32. Thomas Jones, KC (Bye: 4): The roles of Jones and Charles are still muddled. Until a definitive starter is named, it’s tough to peg these two. You can’t overlook the season Jones had last year: 1400 yards and 14 scores.

33. Marion Barber, DAL (Bye: 4): Still atop the Cowpokes depth chart despite the three back carousel. He’s not a starter, but he’ll get around 1000 yards and six scores.

34. Reggie Bush, NO (Bye: 10): He’s got an enormous amount of talent, is this the year he puts it all together?

35. Michael Bush, OAK (Bye: 10): Not the sexiest of picks, but he’s the most consistent Raiders back.

36: Darren McFadden, OAK (Bye: 10): The sexy pick, but he hasn’t been the most consistent Raiders back.

37. Donald Brown, IND (Bye: 7): One of my favorite sleepers for the season. He’s had a full offseason, and could take the starting spot away from Addai.

38. LaDainain Tomlinson, NYJ (Bye: 7): He will remains an elite back around the goal line.

39. Laurence Maroney, NE (Bye: 5): Will get the bulk of the carries, although Bill Parcells will spread the ball around. He’s got the talent to be a top back, as long as he doesn’t fumble the ball. Big if by the way.

40. Cadillac Williams, TB (Bye: 4): He’s the starter in Tampa, for now. Remember, health is always in issue here.

41. Darren Sproles, SD (Bye: 10): Mathews is a rookie, and will eventually falter. Sproles will be there to pick up the carries. Plus, he’ll get plenty of work in the return game.

42. Arian Foster, HOU (Bye: 7): One of three running backs could capture this job (Foster, Ben Tate, Steve Slaton). Slaton is recovering from a neurological injury, and word out of camp is that Tate has been inconsistent. Foster rushed for 216 yards and three scores as the featured back in the last two weeks. The big question is whether Foster can remain healthy.

43. Chester Taylor, CHI (Bye: 8): The Bears have 12.5 million reasons to get Taylor involved in the offense.

44. Kevin Smith, DET (Bye: 7): Jahvid Best has a long history of injuries, and Smith will leap at a chance to reclaim his starting job.

45. Willis McGahee, BAL (Bye: 8): See ‘Ray Rice.’

46. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (Bye: 8): The best Giants rusher last season. The New York brass won’t hesitate to insert Bradshaw if Jacobs falters.

47. Montario Hardesty, CLE (Bye: 8): Despite Jerome Harrison’s impressive end of the season, no one knows if he can do it for a full 16 games. Hardesty is a big, powerful, one-cut back who fits in well with the Browns’ new system.

48. Tim Hightower, ARI (Bye: 6): Hightower came down with an unfortunate case of fumblitis the last few seasons. Still an elite pass catcher out of the backfield.

49. Correll Buckhalter, DEN (Bye: 9): Outplayed first round pick Moreno last season. The Broncos want to feature Knowshon this season, but Buckhalter is still a reliable back.

50. Leon Washington, SEA (Bye: 5): Keep an eye out for Washington, who’s arguably the most talented back on the Seahawks. He has added value as a kick returner as well.

Deep Sleepers: Derrick Ward (TB), Ben Tate & Steve Slaton (HOU), Tashard Choice (DAL), Marshawn Lynch (BUF), Anthony Dixon (SF), Toby Gerhart (MIN), Joe McKnight (NYJ)

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We continue our tour of the fantasy football rankings. In this installment, we turn our attention to the pass catchers. Yes, they can be prima donna, complain about their touches, and throw popcorn around in interviews. But as a fantasy football owner, you get to avoid those headaches. So you’ve got that going for you.

As I discussed in my ‘Draft Strategy’ blog, drafters are beginning to back away from the idea that a running back must be the first overall pick. For the leagues top pass catchers, they are reaping the rewards of this mentality. No one bats an eye if Andre Johnson is picked in the first round. Even guys like Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates are being picked as high as the third round.

In points per reception (PPR) leagues, these guys can even go higher. Again, it’s important that you know what kind of league you are in, how your league will divvy up points before you enter the draft room.

2010 Tight End Rankings

In the past few seasons, the quality and talent of the tight ends in the league have gone up exponentially. It used to be that guys like Kyle Brady were the prototypical tightend. Brady was a blocker first, a blocker second, and then maybe would release out for a pass. But that’s not the case anymore. Guys like Gates and Witten have shown that a TE can be more than a blocker, they can be elite pass catchers. Let’s compare the 10^th best tight end from 2000 and 2010.

	Year/Fantasy Rank	Pts
Stephen Alexander (WAS)	2000 (10th)	63
Greg Olsen (CHI)	2010 (10th)	103

That’s a 40 point difference in just ten years. And the floor drops out pretty dramatically following Alexander. This season just further proves the point that there is more parity for fantasy tight ends. According to predictions, up to 15 tight ends could end the season with more than 100 points this year. In no other year has that happened. So if you miss out on one of the top guys, don’t feel that you need to reach to get someone. There are plenty of viable options further down the road.

1. Dallas Clark, IND (Bye: 7): Clark recorded 100 catches last season en route to his top season for the Colts. As long as Peyton Manning remains under center, Dallas Clark remains a top five fantasy tight end.

2. Vernon Davis, SF (Bye: 9): Welcome back to relevancy Mr. Davis. Drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft just a few years ago, VD85 was a freakish athlete who was supposed to take the league by storm (I mean, he returned kicks as a TE at Maryland!). But it took him awhile to figure out how to play in the NFL. 49er fans are thrilled that he finally did. Last year, Davis caught eight TDs, including a couple of games where he caught two. With the emergence of guys like Michael Crabtree, Davis should begin to see single coverage once again. A scary thought.

3. Antonio Gates, SD (Bye: 10): Yawn, Gates atop fantasy rankings again, yawn.

4. Jason Witten, DAL (Bye: 4): Tony Romo has weapons in every direction he looks. But when he needs to complete a pass, he looks Jason Witten’s way.

5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL (Bye: 8): See ‘Antonio Gates’

6. Jermichael Finley, GB (Bye: 10): He took a big step last year to emerge as a star at the TE position. He’ll be helped by a full offseason working with the first team and QB Aaron Rodgers. Also worth noting: Finley is the tallest pass catcher for GB, making him the ideal target around the goal line.

7. Owen Daniels, HOU (Bye: 7): People might have forgotten how well he played last year because of an injury in week 8. But in seven full games, Daniels caught 39 balls and five touchdowns. Over a full season, that’s 89 balls and 11 touchdowns. Just saying.

8. Brent Celek, PHI (Bye: 8): Celek rooms with new QB Kevin Kolb on the road. In the two games Kolb started last year, Celek caught 16 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown. Again, just saying.

9. Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN (Bye: Week 4): Again, I’m not buying the Brett Favre retirement rumors. #4 loves tight ends around the goal line, and has grew fond of Shiancoe last season. He’ll be around 8 TDs this year.

10. Zach Miller, OAK (Bye: 10): Miller has flown under the radar playing for some seriously subpar teams on the California coast. Yet, he’s consistently been the best receiver the past three seasons and should excel with Jason Campbell on the team.

11. Kellen Winslow Jr., TB (Bye: 4): They have to throw it to someone.

12. Chris Cooley, WAS (Bye: 9) Donovan McNabb likes tight ends.

13. John Carlson, SEA (Bye: 5): Has quietly been a solid option.

14. Greg Olsen, CHI (Bye: 8): I don’t know how much I buy the rumors Mike Martz will avoid passing to Olsen. He is a dynamic receiver, something Martz loves.

15. Jeremy Shockey, NO (Bye: 10): He plays on a team with the #1 passing offense.

16. Kevin Boss, NYG (Bye:8): Not flashy, but does his job each week.

17. Heath Miller, PIT (Bye: 5): Miller’s stock drops a bit with Big Ben on the bench for at least four games.

18. Ben Watson, CLE (Bye: 8): Delhomme will be running for his life, which is good for Watson who will be the outlet option.

19. Todd Heap, BAL (Bye: 8): If he’s healthy, he’ll be a viable fantasy option. Hopefully being pushed by rookies Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta will give him some incentive to stay healthy.

20. Mercedes Lewis, JAC (Bye: 9): He’s the unquestioned starter, so he’s got that going for him.

21. Anthony Fasano, MIA (Bye: 5): Ditto.

22. Jermaine Gresham, CIN (Bye: 6): And underrated prospect who could be much higher on this list when the season’s over.

23. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (Bye: 7): Was just figuring it out when he got injured last season. Should improve with another offseason working with Matthew Stafford.

24. Shawn Nelson, BUF (Bye: 6): See ‘Mercedes Lewis’

25. Fred Davis, WAS (Bye 9): See ‘Chris Cooley’

Deep Sleepers: Ed Dickson & Dennis Pitta (BAL), Zach Miller (JAC), Tony Scheffler (DET), Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez (NE), Jared Cook (TEN), Tony Moeaki (KC), Travis Beckum (NYG)

2010 Wide Receiver Rankings

While the TE’s have a number of viable options, that same can’t quite be said for wideouts, at least the top ones. Only nine receivers had five or more games with 100 yards. That’s not a lot considering each team has at least two WR spots to play a week. There’s not a ton of elite prospects this year.

For that reason, if you have a top WR drop to you in the draft, don’t hesitate to draft him. There just aren’t very many Andre Johnsons in the world. You’ll see in the next blog, there are 15-20 starting quality running back options. You can pull the trigger in the first round on a wideout and still get a RB with your second pick.

1. Andre Johnson, HOU (Bye: 7): Far and away my top fantasy option. It doesn’t hurt that he’s been on my team the last three years. Simply put, he always gives you exceptional numbers. With a new contract in tow, he should continue to make fantasy owners happy for years to come.

2. Reggie Wayne, IND (Bye: 7): Wayne made Colts fans forget about Marvin Harrison in a hurry. He’s got some of the strongest hands in the league, and catches everything thrown in his general direction. Doesn’t hurt that Peyton Manning is his QB.

3. Randy Moss, NE (Bye: 5): All indications are Brady and the Pats return to form offensively this year. Moss should be the top target.

4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (Bye: 6): Even with Matt Leinart under center, Fitzgerald should get his numbers. With Anquan Boldin residing in Maryland, Fitzgerald could lead the league in targets.

5. Calvin Johnson, DET (Bye: 7): Megatron possesses all the talent in the world. With another year of work with Stafford, coupled with the coaching staff opening up the playbook, expect big things from Johnson this year.

6. Brandon Marshall, MIA (Bye: 5): They didn’t trade for him not to throw to him. Considering the other options on the roster, he’ll see plenty of Chad Henne passes.

7. Greg Jennings, GB (Bye: 10): Some will say this is high for Jennings, but he’s one of two WRs (along with A. Johnson) to have at least five 100 yard games the past two seasons. The GB offense continues to evolve, and Jennings will reap the benefits.

8. Roddy White, ATL (Bye: 8): The Falcons are expecting a bounce back year, and White is a big part of those plans. He’s on the cusp of moving into elite status.

9. Steve Smith, CAR (Bye: 6): Smith had three of his best games with Matt Moore under center. Scary to think what the combo could do with a full season.

10. Anquan Boldin, BAL (Bye: 8): The best option on a team that wants to develop its passing game. Boldin should singlehandedly provide the balance the Ravens’ offense was missing.

11. Sidney Rice, MIN (Bye: 4): I’ve made my feelings on Favre known. If the star of ‘There’s Something About Mary’ is under center, Rice is a top prospect. If not, I’d put him in the 20’s.

12. Miles Austin, DAL (Bye: 4): His numbers will dip from last year with addition of Dez Bryant, but still a top-flight wideout.

13. DeSean Jackson, PHI (Bye: 8): I’m not as high on Jackson as some this season. His game is reliant on the big play. A classic risk/reward guy, but if your team gives points for punt and kick returns, his value goes up.

14. Michael Crabtree, SF (Bye: 9): Jump on the bandwagon now, Crabtree is ready to become a top WR.

15. Marques Colston, NO (Bye: 10): Best WR on the league’s top passing team.

16. Chad Ochocinco, CIN (Bye: 6): The Bengals want to throw more, The ‘Receiver Formerly Known as Chad Johnson’ is their best receiver.

17. Wes Welker, NE (Bye: 5): A great possession receiver coming back from injury. In a PPR league, he is an outstanding prospect. Owners should keep an eye on his knee to make sure it’s healthy before selecting him.

18. Dwayne Bowe, KC (Bye: 4): Has been good, but has yet to be great. Can he take it to the next level with Charlie Weis at offensive coordinator?

19. Hines Ward, PIT (Bye: 5): On the backside of his career, but still the best Steeler WR.

20. Vincent Jackson, SD (Bye: 10): Missing the first three games of the season because of a DUI. He’s a game changer who’s looking for a new contract. He should be motivated to put up big numbers if you’re willing to sit him on your bench early.

21. Mike Sims-Walker, JAC (Bye: 9): Burst onto the scene last season, he is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Jags.

22. Donald Driver, GB (Bye: 10) Father Time has been kind to the shimmy-master of the Midwest. With the ink still wet on his new contract, Driver lines up for another big season.

23. Steve Smith, NYG (Bye: 8): Smith will have a nice season, but I’m not on as high on him because of the emergence of the guy below.

24. Hakeem Nicks, NYG (Bye: 8): Nicks has had an outstanding offseason, and some are clamoring for him to be the number one option for the G-Men. With great hands, and a year of experience, this could be a big year.

25. Santana Moss, WAS (Bye: 9): Call this a hunch, but Moss could be a Pro Bowler this year. That’s how much having a dynamic QB will help him.

26. Pierre Garcon, IND (Bye: 7): Proved in the postseason that he is ready to play with the big boys. He’s locked up the number two wideout spot for Indy.

27. Mike Wallace, PIT (Bye: 5): He’s a constant threat to strike for a TD. With Santonio Holmes now in New York, Wallace moves into the #2 spot.

28. Jeremy Maclin, PHI (Bye: 8): Another year of experience for this big play guy.

29. Dez Bryant, DAL (Bye: 4): In giving him the heralded #88 jersey, the Cowboys showed they have high hopes for Bryant. They’re going to give him every opportunity to succeed.

30. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA (Bye: 5): Championship! But really, he’s the best receiver on the team.

31: Johnny Knox, CHI (Bye: 8): Early returns from Bears camp is Knox is the new favorite of Cutler and OC Martz. We know Chicago wants to throw it around, this could be the guy making a lot of those catches.

32. Robert Meachem, NO (Bye: 10): Brees’ big play threat.

33. Braylon Edwards, NYJ (Bye: 7): Mark Sanchez needs to throw to someone.

34. Steve Breaston, ARI (Bye: 6): Takes Boldin’s spot, proved in the playoffs he’s ready for the role.

35. Percy Harvin, MIN (Bye: 4): If healthy, he’s a dynamic player. Note: if healthy.

36. Kenny Britt, TEN (Bye: 9): The top receiving option for Vince Young (other than CJ2K).

37. Lee Evans, BUF (Bye: 6): The only viable receiving option on the Bills roster.

38. Santonio Holmes, NYJ (Bye: 7): See ‘Braylon Edwards.’ Note: Holmes will be out until October due to league suspension

39. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Bye: 7): If he takes advantage of Holmes’ suspension, could play big role the rest of the year.

40. Terrell Owens, CIN (Bye: 6): No longer elite, but still solid.

41: Derrick Mason, BAL (Bye: 8): Ditto.

42. Eddie Royal, DEN (Bye: 9): Could be the default #1 option following the loss of Brandon Marshall. If he’s able to reclaim some of the fire from his rookie season, Royal could be a late round steal.

43. Devin Hester, CHI (Bye: 8): Mike Martz’s offensive strategy is about spreading the ball around. Someone needs to catch it. Could be Hester.*

44. Devin Aromashodu, CHI (Bye: 8): *Also could be DA.

45. Devery Henderson, NO (Bye: 10): Much like Martz, Drew Brees likes to spread the ball out.

46. Nate Burleson, DET (Bye: 7): Should take advantage of opponents double-teaming Calvin Johnson.

47. Kevin Walter, HOU (Bye: 7) Should take advantage of opponents double-teaming Andre Johnson. Déjà vu, right?

48. Chaz Schilens, OAK (Bye: 10): A late-round pick that could pay huge dividends. Schilens was on his way to being the top Oakland WR before he was injured last season.

49. Malcolm Floyd, SD (Bye: 10): Will be top option for first three weeks with VJax out, andcould make it hard for Rivers not to throw to him even when Jackson comes back.

50. Bernard Berrian, MIN (Bye: 4): Still has valuable role in potent Minnesota passing game.

Deep Sleepers: Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE), Early Doucet (ARI), Austin Collie (IND), Mario Manningham (NYG), Golden Tate (SEA), Josh Morgan (SF), Donnie Avery & Laurent Robinson (STL), Demaryius Thomas (DEN), Arrelious Benn & Mike Williams (TB), Dexter McCluster (KC).

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We start with what is likely the least exciting group of rankings. Why? It’s like a good novel, we lay down some of the story before the exciting end (and only Sebastian Janikowski would think the kickers are good enough to be considered the climax). As I explained in my previous post, it is not likely that a kicker will win you a championship, but selecting the right Defensive/Special Teams unit could. Let’s see the difference between the top team and the tenth best team.

	Points	Points per game
1. San Francisco	167	10
10. Minnesota	126	7

Scoring ten points a game is the type consistency that puts a smile on a fantasy owner’s face. While the difference is only three points, this is a cheap way to give you a leg up. Do you go out and draft a defensive unit high? Absolutely not. But maybe you can sneak up ahead of your buddies and nab the top squad.

 

2010 Kicker Rankings

 

Things to look for: When looking for your kicking choice, you want to look for a few things. Number one is consistency. Some leagues will penalize you anytime your PK misses. Often this means you just lose a point, but some harsher leagues take as many as three away. If your kicker cannot consistently hit the makeable boots, then he should not be your kicker anymore.

The next thing to look for doesn’t have as much to do with the guy himself, but with the team. Any kicker’s numbers will be better if he is on a team that puts up big numbers. Sure, the kicker lining up for an extra point might be your cue to take a bathroom break, but it also means an extra point or two for your team.

The final thing to look for is a big leg. Fantasy points for field goals are divvied up based on how far the kick was. For example, ESPN gives 5 points for a 50 yarder and up, 4 for 40-49, and three for 30-39. If your guy can connect consistently, it gives his coach more confidence to run out the field goal unit versus the punting unit. And that’s points in your pocket.

1. Nate Kaeding, SD (Bye: 10): Consistent as they come in the regular season (not so much in the playoff, but by then, you’ve already hoisted the trophy).

2. Stephen Gostkowski, NE (Bye: 5): Team can score in bunches, gets bonus points for a sweet first name.

3. Ryan Longwell, MIN (Bye: 4): I don’t care what Brett Favre is allegedly texting to teammates, he’ll be back. And, the Vikings will score points. You connect the dots.

4. David Akers, PHI (Bye: 8): Green Akers has ice water in his veins. He rarely misses on makeable kicks.

5. Garrett Hartley, NO (Bye: 10): Didn’t play a ton because of off the field issues, but he’s got a huge leg and isn’t intimidated by big game situations (Right Viking fans?).

6. Rob Bironas, TEN (Bye: 9)

7. Robbie Gould, CHI (Bye: 8): With Martz at offensive coordinator, the Bears will score more points. No one embraces cold weather kicking then Gould.

8. Mason Crosby, GB (Bye: 10): The Packers will score (a ton). Crosby is far from consistent at this point in his career, but he has a big leg and will be given ample opportunities to impress.

9.  Matt Prater, DEN (Bye: 9)

10. Lawrence Tynes, NYG (Bye: 8): Healthy, good cold weather kick (Right Packers fans?) and the most pimped out ride of any kicker: http://tweetphoto.com/37185263

11. Jeff Reed, PIT (Bye: 5)

12.  Shayne Graham, BAL (Bye:8)

13.  Jay Feely, ARI (Bye: 6)

14.  David Buehler, DAL (Bye: 4): The former kickoff specialist is poised to take over as the full time placekicker. We know Dallas will score, and he has got a cannon attached to his right leg, but he is still unproven. Might be a good gamble if you miss out on the top 10 guys.

15.  Neil Rackers, HOU (Bye: 7)

16.  Matt Bryant, ATL (Bye:8)

17.  Joe Nedney, SF (Bye: 9)

18.  Olindo Mare, SEA (Bye: 5): Used to be THE guy for fantasy kickers. Saw a nice resurgence last year kicking toward the Puget Bay.

19.  Sebastian Janikowski: OAK (Bye: 10): Love him or hate him, he simply makes kicks that others can’t. He also misses kicks that my little sisters could hit. Kind of sums up Janikowski as a whole.

20.  Ryan Succop, KC (Bye: 4)

21.  John Kasay, CAR (Bye: 6)

22.  Ryan Lindell, BUF (Bye: 6)

23.  Jason Hanson, DET (Bye: 7): Name the best Lions player since Barry Sanders retired. That’s right, it’s Hanson. Ladies and gentleman: Your Detroit Lions!

24.  Dan Carpenter, MIA (Bye: 5)

25.  Adam Vinatieri, IND (Bye: 7)

 

 

2010 Defense/Special Teams Rankings

 

Things to look for: Turnovers are key for real defenses and fantasy defenses. A unit that can get the ball back to the offense can also help you win the championship. Interceptions and fumbles recovered are worth two points, and that total jumps up to six if they are returned for touchdowns. Look for teams that have ball-hawking corners and safeties and linebackers that are considered playmakers.

If turnovers are key, than pressuring the quarterback is the key ring (yes, a woefully bad analogy). Consider this: your team gets a point for each time your defense gets a sack, and those sacks often lead to INTs or fumbles.

Finally, this unit is not just about the defense, but also the special teams. Punt and kick returns are hard to predict, but look for a unit that has a dynamic kick returner. At the very least, it will give the other team bad field possession, which is good for your defense. Plus, you never know when they’ll break one for a score.

1. New York Jets (Bye: 7): Rex Ryan’s unit blitzes the QB better than anyone. With Revis Island now joined by Antonio Cromartie and rookie Kyle Wilson, not to mention Flambeau HS grad Jim Leonhard, Gang Green’s secondary might be the best in the league.

2. Green Bay Packers (Bye: 10): Let me start by saying that I do not expect the Green and Gold to record 40 takeaways like they did last season. With that being said, they return just about everyone from last season’s second ranked defense. Moreover, with another of experience in the 3-4, this could be a scary unit.

3. Dallas Cowboys (Bye: 4): Just another year in the top five.

4. Baltimore Ravens (Bye: 8): Ditto.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (Bye: 8): They blitz on first down. They blitz on second down. They blitz on third down. They do not blitz on fourth, but that’s only because the other team is punting.

6. Minnesota Vikings (Bye: 4): The Williams Wall shuts down the run better than any other duo, and Ray Edwards and Jared Allen get to the quarterback consistently. The question for Minnesota is in the secondary, where they are prone to give up a big play.

7. San Francisco 49ers (Bye: 9): Last year’s top fantasy defense returns most of their starters. Patrick Willis is an absolute beast in the middle, and forces offenses to change how they play the Niners. The secondary is aging quickly, but the return game should get a nice boost from the addition of Ted Ginn Jr.

8. New York Giants (Bye: 8): Call this a hunch. The Giants didn’t really excel in any facet last season. However, after sinking to the bottom of the league, they G-Men have some incentive to get back to the top. They made a number of offseason moves to bolster this unit, but none was bigger than bringing in defensive coordinator Perry Fewell. He should be able to light a fire under Usi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck and the rest of the defense will follow.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (Bye: 6)

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bye: 5): This unit could drop down much lower if Troy Polamalu does not play a full season.

11. New England Patriots (Bye: 5): The team has worked hard to get this unit younger, especially through the draft. Their linebacking corp is the strongest it has been in a few years. This unit is poised for a resurgence.

12. San Diego Chargers (Bye: 10): Can Shawne Merriman return to form for the Bolts? That’s the biggest question concerning this unit. If he can, this defense will strike some real fear into opponents. Another bonus is the return possibilities that Darren Sproles brings to the table. The man is lightning in a bottle. (Three lightning related puns, my job is done)

13. Houston Texans (Bye: 7): The team has a number of playmakers, led by Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans. The suspension of Brian Cushing hurts, but he will eventually return. Is this the season that this unit puts it all together?

14. New Orleans Saints (Bye: 10): Listen, I really liked the Saints last year. They were a great story. But as defense goes, they were saved by the high number of turnovers they were able to force. Can they put up a repeat performance? If they do, they go up higher in these rankings. If not, they could fall even lower than 14.

15. Chicago Bears (Bye: 8): Coach is fighting for his job and the team added Julius Peppers. That should be enough to boost up their ratings. Also, the Monsters of the Midway have consistently had a strong return game.

16. Denver Broncos (Bye: 9): Bye Elvis Dumervil, bye top ten ranking.

17.  Atlanta Falcons (Bye:8)

18. Miami Dolphins (Bye: 5)

19. Indianapolis Colts (Bye: 7): We know they can get to the QB, and those young corners have another year of experience.

20. Cleveland Browns (Bye:8)

21. Tennessee Titans (Bye: 7)

22. Arizona Cardinals (Bye: 6)

23. Kansas City Chiefs (Bye: 4): You’d have to imagine adding Romeo Crennel will improve this unit.

24. Buffalo Bills (Bye: 6)

25. Detroit Lions (Bye: 7)

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It’s that wonderful time of the year. The birds are chirping, the sun is shining, and you’re stuck inside researching for your upcoming fantasy draft. Go enjoy the nice weather my friend. In the next few blogs, I’ll do your fantasy research for you, and help get you bragging rights for the next year.

We start our fantasy football series with the guidelines. No matter your level of experience or knowledge, if you enter a draft without some sort of game plan, you could end the day with a team that wouldn’t scare the St. Louis Rams (if you didn’t know,  that’s a bad thing).  If you’re in a keeper league, who should you keep from the year before? How will that affect your draft? When should you go quarterback? Running back? Kicker? The guidelines below will give you a blue print of what you should be doing up and through draft day.

Knowing is half the battle

The first rule seems pretty simple, but simply knowing the rules of your league can make all the difference. Before you even start researching players, look at how your league scores. Does your league give a point per reception, or does a receiver need to catch five passes to get any points? Is a touchdown pass worth four points or six? Depending on the answers, your draft strategy will look very different. For example, Matt Forte was a huge disappointment for many fantasy owners last year, but in a PPR league, he actually didn’t fare that bad.

As important as it is to know how your league’s scoring works, you should understand the differences and advantages of different styles of drafts. In an auction style league, each team is given a budget. Every player is available for every owner to ‘bid’ on. This style is popular because it allows you to act as the general manager of your own team.  In a snake league, the Team A gets the first pick, picks last in the second round, first in the third and so on. Depending on which draft you’re in, you need to plan accordingly. In an auction draft, do you want to blow your budget on a couple of stud RBs or let your friends spend most of their cash while you underpay for good players? In a snake league, you may have to wait 18 picks between selections, so you might need to reach to get the player you want.  It’s important to research accordingly.

Splitting carries: good for NFL, bad for you

There was once a golden age in fantasy football where each team had a single running back that got the majority of the carries. But sadly, those days are dead. Now you have situations like in Carolina where DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who are both great backs, are splitting carries. Or even worse, in Dallas where three guys carry the rock.  Drafting a running back with your first pick used to be the best strategy, and many fantasy owners still are stuck in that mindset. But take a look at the top ten scorers last year.

1. Chris Johnson, RB	329	6. Matt Schaub, QB	269
2. Aaron Rodgers, QB	327	7. Tony Romo, QB	267
3. Drew Brees, QB	280	8. Adrian Peterson, RB	265
4. Brett Favre, QB	274	9. Tom Brady, QB	261
5. Peyton Manning, QB	272	10. Philip Rivers, QB	258

Only two running backs make the list of the top ten scorers. It’s pretty simple, the day of the dominate fantasy rusher looks to be all but dead. Yet, with that said…

Value, not high scores, is the key to drafting

By that I mean, just because Brees scored more points than AP, that doesn’t mean he should be your choice. Confusing, isn’t it? I just told you that the day of the dominate rusher is gone, and that the top scorers were signal callers. But that’s the point.  The difference between the top quarterback and tenth best isn’t nearly as large as the difference between the best running back and the tenth best.  Here’s what I mean:

	QB	RB	WR
#1  Scorer	Aaron Rodgers : 327	Chris Johnson: 329	Andre Johnson: 205
#10 Scorer	Donovan McNabb: 223	Steven Jackson: 180	Sidney Rice: 169
Difference	124	149	36

By looking at these numbers, you can see a top notch running back is actually worth more than a stud quarterback, because you can’t find the same value later on. With that in mind, feel free to pick Maurice Jones-Drew over Drew Brees with your first pick.  A couple of tips: try to get a back that doesn’t split time and be wary of goal line vultures (backup rushers who get the majority of red-zone carries).

Don’t always go with your heart, AKA: Stop being a fan for a second

­Listen, I get it. We all have a favorite team. And what’s more fun than having your favorite player on your fantasy team? I don’t care if you think the sun shines because Donald Driver smiles, he’s not worth a first or even a second round pick. Do your research, and get an idea of where someone like Driver is slated to go. If you find out he’s a fifth round pick in most leagues, maybe you can pick him up in the late fourth round, or early fifth instead of missing wasting a second round pick on a guy you could have gotten three rounds later. Value is the name of the game.

Cheat sheets are allowed

You might go into your draft knowing that you want to pick up Player X. But right before you pick, someone else picks him. Now what do you do? Don’t panic. Just pick the next guy on your list. In your preparation, make up a list of your favorite players at every position as well as a master list ranking all the players. If that sounds like a lot of work, there are a number of websites that have these lists already made up for you.

The master list is the important one. For example, say you’re in the eighth round and the six teams ahead of you all picked tight ends. Do you reach and pick the next TE on your list or do you use that opportunity to grab a third running back that’s slipped down the draft board? By checking your list, you might see that there’s not much difference between the next eight TEs, but a huge difference between that running back and the next best. Having a cheat sheet will make these split-second decisions much easier.

Yes, kickers are technically football players…

…but you should never ever draft a kicker until the final round. It doesn’t matter if you went to high school with Ryan Longwell, or you actually are Mason Crosby — do not draft a kicker until the last round. Last year, the difference between the number one kicker (Nate Kaeding, 155 pts.) and the number 10 (Jeff Reed, 122 pts.) was just 33 points. Over a 16 game schedule, the difference is just two points a week, clearly not enough to significantly impact your score. Instead, use the last couple of rounds to select some sleepers (check out my sleeper lists in my next few posts) who have a chance to have big years. For example, in many leagues, Mike Sims-Walker went in the end of the draft, or not at all. Yet, he was one of the better receivers this past season.

Check back here in the next few weeks for Top 25 rankings at every position, as well as a list of sleepers and guys to avoid. See you in the draft room.

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