Let me first say, welcome back to the blog. For those of you who don’t know me, or check in periodically, it’s been an exciting month and a half. I got married in the largest snow storm in Eau Claire history (22-inches – I would not recommend getting married in December), got snowed out of a honeymoon, celebrated Christmas,  New Year’s, a birthday, and was promoted to weekend sports anchor. With all of that on my plate, I decided to take a step back from the blog for awhile

Only meteorologists and fantasy writers are expected to predict the future. Yet, it’s the line of work we pick. Much like a meteorologist, I scour over data, look for trends, and make my best hypothesis on what will happen each Sunday. I certainly had some successes, but there were many failures mixed in. Here’s a look back at some of the good and bad preseason picks.

Quarterbacks

Got it Right:

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay: Rodgers didn’t put up the same ridiculous numbers as the 2009 season, but that would have been a very tough one to repeat. The fact is, the guy was consistently good, and that’s what you’re looking for in a fantasy QB.  Rodgers was the second rated fantasy quarterback, and should continue that production for years to come.

2. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay: Freeman made it on my sleepers list, but quickly rocketed up my rankings each week. He’s a guy who has great size, an above-average arm, and his young receivers continue to improve. He will be a top 10 fantasy quarterback option next year.

3. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets: This may be the pessimistic view, but I never loved Sanchez. He gets a lot of hype, and he continues to win games. But the fact of the matter is, in fantasy football, that simply doesn’t matter. It’s all about the stats you put up. Sanchez was the 17^th ranked fantasy quarterback, and his season took an epic nosedive when fantasy owners needed him most.

Swing and a miss:

1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia: He was the top fantasy player in 2010, and didn’t even make my top 25. Yes, he started the year as a backup, but I missed big on that one.

2. Tony Romo, Dallas: Many fantasy owners know the pain of injuries. Romo entered the season with a bevy of talented pass-catchers, a good offensive line, and every opportunity to succeed. But just like with the Dallas Cowboys season, things didn’t go as plan.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota: He had a ton of weapons, was coming off the best season of his career, and had the Super Bowl in his crosshairs. Simply put, even legendary players can only put on so many miles before it falls apart.

Running Back

Got it Right:

1. Arian Foster, Houston: I fell in love with Foster in the preseason, and he established himself in week one with a stellar performance against the Colts. He continued it through the rest of the year, rushing eight times for 100 yards or more, and chipping in 66 catches. He finished with 81 more fantasy points than any other fantasy back.

2. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia: In his first season as the main guy, McCoy left his mark on the league. The sixth-ranked fantasy back did it on the ground (1,080 yards, 7 touchdowns) and catching the ball (78 catches, 592 yards, 2 touchdowns). That kind of versatility is reminiscent of the guy he replaced in Philly.

3. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh: Mendenhall finished right where I expected he would. His 1273 yards and 13 touchdowns made him a must-start throughout the season.

Swing and a miss:

1. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland: The fourth-ranked fantasy back did now show up in my top 50 rankings, but he certainly deserved to be there. Hillis ran with an edge all year, and his production even got backup Jerome Harrison shipped out of town.

2. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City: I loved Charles all year, but was very wary of the dual-back system in KC. Clearly I was wrong. Charles and Thomas Jones both thrived in the backfield, and Charles clearly had the type of season that will make him special for years to come.

3. Ray Rice, Baltimore: Rice still finished as a top 10 scorer, but more was expected from him. He scored a total of six touchdowns and only had two 100 yard games. Not what fantasy owners were expecting from a guy drafted in the top five.

Wide Receiver

Got it Right:

1. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants: Back in August, I wrote this: “With great hands, and a year of experience, this could be a big year.” Well, it was a big year for Nicks, a guy who elevated himself into the upper echelon of fantasy wideouts. Despite losing four games to injury, Nicks still finished seventh in fantasy scoring, above guys like Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne.

2. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay: It’s not hard to say that it’s a good idea to draft a Wayne or Greg Jennings, but fantasy teams are won by the guys who are drafted late that pay huge dividends later on. Mike Williams gave second round fantasy production for a 14^th round price tag. That’s a win every time.

3. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City: I had Bowe in my top-20, but he was quickly moving up my fantasy rankings each week. The addition of a new offensive coaching staff, and an offseason of working out with Cris Carter and Larry Fitzgerald, paid huge dividends for Bowe.

Swing and a miss:

1. Steve Smith, Carolina: The QB carousal killed a lot of the good fantasy options on the Panthers, but no one took a bigger hit than Steve Smith. He only scored two touchdowns in 2010; this after averaging eight a season the five seasons prior. Let’s just say it’s a season Smith owners would like to forget.

2. Donald Driver, Green Bay: Driver entered my rankings at 22, but finished well out of the top 40. Age, injury, and the receivers behind him forced DD to have his worst statistical season since 2001.

3. Randy Moss, New England/Minnesota/Tennessee: He was my number three receiver, but it seems he had more teams in 2010 than he did touchdown catches. In the final few weeks for the Titans, he was nothing more than a decoy. It was a big fall for a guy who was drafted by some in the first round.

Tight End

Got it Right:

1. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta: Year in, year out, he’s the poster child for consistency. 70 catches, six touchdowns. Another ho-hum season for Gonzalez.

2. Chris Cooley, Washington: I thought having McNabb on the roster would mean a boost for Cooley. I was half right. Cooley had a good bounce back year, catching 77 balls for 850 yards and three touchdowns.  He was the sixth-ranked TE, and was a consistent 6 points each week.

3. Todd Heap, Baltimore: The Ravens made a statement when they drafted two young tight ends in the draft. Heap responded with his best season in years. He’s still among the best pass catchers around the goal line.

Swing and a miss:

1. Mercedes Lewis, Jacksonville: Lewis entered my rankings as the 20^th best TE, but quickly was moving up the list. The key for Lewis was a midseason slim down. Some reports have him losing as much as 50 pounds. If only he had done that before the season, maybe I would have got his ranking correct.

2. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati: He could not leave his mark on what turned out to be an extremely dysfunctional Bengals offense. He topped just 50 yards three times.

3. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis: Another victim of the injury bug. Clark entered as the top fantasy tight end, and will likely be in the top five once he recovers from his injury.

Posted under Uncategorized