With the NFL season finally getting underway, we can finally turn our attention from the courtrooms and onto the field, where it belongs. In the coming weeks, we will rank the fantasy studs, duds and sleepers for each division. Today, the NFC North gets some time under the microscope.

 

Fantasy Studs

 

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, GB (2010: 3922 yards, 28 TD, 11 INT, 356 rushing yards, 4 TD)

This is the biggest no-brainer of the studs group. In the past two seasons, Rodgers has elevated his game to another level. From a fantasy perspective, Rodgers was the model of consistency. He’s played in all but one game in the past two seasons, and put up at least one touchdown in all but one game last season (the injury-shortened week 14 against Detroit). If Rodgers is on your fantasy team, good luck getting rid of a 17-week grin.

 

Running Back: Adrian Peterson, MIN (2010: 1298 rushing yards, 12 TD, 36 receptions, 341 yards, TD)

Peterson has been a top-3 pick in almost every draft in the past three years, and that streak will likely continue this year. His rushing numbers have dropped each of the past three seasons, but Peterson has compensated by becoming a weapon in the passing game. With rookie Christian Ponder, second-year man Joe Webb, or a free agent to be named later under center for the Vikings this year, I think fantasy owners can feel comfortable in assuming Peterson will get plenty of work this year.

 

Wide Receiver: Greg Jennings, GB (2010: 76 receptions, 1265 yards, 12 TD)

It took a while for Jennings to get going in 2010, putting up over 75 yards just once in the first five weeks. But from there, everything just seemed to go right. He scored double-digit fantasy points eight times, and fell below eight points just once in the final 11 weeks. Jennings is the best pass catcher on one of the best passing teams in the league.

 

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson, DET (2010: 77 receptions, 1120, 12 TD)

Despite a carousel at QB, Johnson remained a top-flight pass option for the Lions. But that shouldn’t surprise any fantasy owner; he’s been doing this his entire career. Now the scary thought comes with what Johnson can do with a healthy quarterback all season (See Matthew Stafford below). Honestly, that thought should keep NFL secondaries awake at night.

 

Tight End: Jermichael Finley, GB (2010: 21 receptions, 301 yards, TD)

Finley makes this list based on potential for next season. In his first four games, Finley averaged five catches and 75 yards a game. More impressive, his role in the offense will likely expand even more this next season. Of course, fantasy owners will (and should) be apprehensive to spend a high pick on Finley based on his injury past. But if you roll the dice and win, you’re going to win big.

 

Defense/ST: Green Bay (2010: 166 fantasy points)

Green Bay was the second –highest scoring defense last year. The team forced at least one turnover in all but two games, and forced two or more in an astounding nine games. Need I say more?

 

 

Fantasy Duds

Quarterback: Jay Cutler, CHI (2010: 3274 yards, 23 TD, 16 INT, 232 rushing yards, TD)

Cutler is just as frustrating as a fantasy player as he is to watch on the field. He has all the talent in the world, but to own Cutler is to ride the rollercoaster with him. When Jay is good, he’s very good (four weeks scoring over 20 points). But when he’s bad, he’s very bad (four weeks under seven points and a big fat -3 points in week 4). 16 quarterbacks scored more fantasy points than Cutler, including – pause for irony – Kyle Orton. Cutler is a fantasy backup. If you expect more from him, don’t expect much from your team.

 

Running Back: Jahvid Best, DET (2010: 563 rushing yards, 4 TD, 58 receptions, 487 yards, 2 TD)

If Best can remain healthy, he will quickly move off this list. But in a fantasy-rich running back division, Best is the worst. His 127 fantasy points are impressive for a rookie, but it becomes way less impressive when you consider he scored more than half of the points in three games. In fact, after week two, he scored just one touchdown the rest of the year.

 

Wide Receiver: Donald Driver, GB (2010: 51 receptions, 565 yards, 4 TD)

Name the top two fantasy receivers for Green Bay last season. You’ve got Jennings, sure. But number two is?  James Jones, and the race wasn’t all that close. Driver was a fantasy stud for years, but injury and a lost step cost him in 2010. He’ll be a solid option as a reserve, but he can no longer be counted on as a fantasy starter.

 

Wide Receiver: Devin Hester, CHI (2010: 40 receptions, 475 yards, 4 TD)

Oh sure, Hester is a return dynamo. Possibly the best there ever was. But as a fantasy receiver, he deserves a spot on this list. In a pass-happy offense that revolved around speedy receivers, Hester could only crack the 50-yard plateau twice. Even a gimpy Donald Driver has better fantasy numbers.

 

Tight End: Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN (2010: 47 receptions, 530 yards, 2 TD)

Shiancoe lived off of Brett Favre in 2009, and died off of him in 2010. After topping 75 yards in each of the first two weeks, he didn’t sniff it again the rest of the season. In fact, he caught more than 4 catches just once after week two. He’s on the wrong side of his career, has a shaky QB situation, and is going to play in a run-happy offensive system. Don’t expect much more than the numbers above in 2011.

 

Defense/ST: Minnesota (108 fantasy points)

The Vikings defense was drafted in the top-10 in almost all fantasy drafts last year, but scored just one more point than the Browns when all was said and done. With a number of free agent questions, and one huge hole fill (DT Pat Williams), the expectations should be much lower this year.

 

 

Fantasy Sleepers

 

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford, DET (2010: 535 yards, 6 TD, INT, 11 rushing yards, TD)

The pieces are around him (Johnson, Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and Nate Burleson) and he’s got the talent. But can Stafford stay healthy? He’s played just 13 games in two seasons, but it’s way too early to write him off yet. Let me say this: if you draft Stafford as a backup and he gets hurt, is your team really hurt? But if you draft Stafford and he puts up the above numbers over an entire season, don’t you look like a genius? Roll the dice.

 

Running Back: Ryan Grant, GB (2010: 8 rushes, 45 yards)

Remember Grant, the steady running option that kept opposing defenses honest? The guy who rushed for more than 1200 yards in consecutive season before getting hurt this past season. The guy that missed just one game in his first three seasons? Hopefully you do (and your buddies don’t), because drafting Grant is going to be cheap with a big payoff. (Writers Note: Yes, James Starks belongs here too)

 

Wide Receiver: Nate Burleson, DET (2010: 55 receptions, 625 yards, 6 TD)

Burleson has been under the radar the past two seasons, putting up good numbers for Seattle in 2009 and Detroit in 2010. Burleson is an ideal option across from Megatron. He’s a guy who can hit a slant and take it to the house, and quietly puts up good numbers. If Stafford has the season I believe he will, Burleson becomes even more valuable.

 

Wide Receiver: Earl Bennett, CHI (2010: 46 receptions, 561 yards, 3 TD)

Finding a good sleeper option is like predicting the stock market. You look for trends, look to buy low, and hope the payoff is high. The Bears were impressed at what they saw from Bennett in the postseason, and has reportedly been an offseason workhorse. Will that translate to the playing field this year? Maybe, but we know the Bears will throw the ball, and someone’s got to catch them.

 

Tight End: Kyle Rudolph, MIN (Rookie out of Notre Dame)

I’ll leave the gossip to TMZ, but I think it is telling that Rudolph and Ponder have worked out together all offseason, and Ponder has crashed at Rudolph’s place during the offseason. If Ponder does take over as the starter, he’ll need a safety net, and that will be Rudolph. Even if it’s not Ponder under center, expect the Vikings to try to stretch the middle of the field with the big TE and keep the safeties out of the box.

 

Defense/ST: Detroit (120 fantasy points)

They boast one of the best front-fours in the league, will be great against the run, and will attack the quarterback. There are a number of question marks in the secondary, but this is a defense on its way up.

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The 2011 NFL Draft is in the books and like most years, there were no shortage of moments that evoked a “Did that really just happen?” As many who follow the draft know, you can have your facts, figures, and statistics ready, but in the end, it’s really a crapshoot.

This year’s draft was one of the most unique in a long time. The draft started with one set of rules, ended with another, and the NFL labor situation cast a shadow over the whole ordeal. With NFL teams not allowed to trade players, there was a more desperate vibe, more reaches than in recent memories, and an air of unknown. Does Arizona have a gentleman’s agreement with Philadelphia to land Kevin Kolb once trading resumes? If not, you have to question the Cardinals not taking a chance on a quarterback. Something tells me we will better be able to break down this draft in three or four months.

I really believe it takes at least two years to fully appreciate and rate a draft. Getting B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews in the same draft class looks a whole lot different now than it did in 2008. Same goes on the flipside – passing on Reggie Bush for Mario Williams no longer looks like one of the biggest draft mistakes as it did when the news was first announced. Still, this is a business of rapid reaction, so here are my initial thoughts on this weekend’s NFC North selections.

 Green Bay Packers : B+

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
1	32 (32)	Derek Sherrod	OT	Miss. State
2	32 (64)	Randall Cobb	WR	Kentucky
3	32 (96)	Alex Green	RB	Hawaii
4	34 (131)	Davon House	CB	New Mexico St
5	10 (141)	D.J. Williams	TE	Arkansas
6	14 (179)	Caleb Schlauderaff	OG	Utah
6	21 (186)	D.J. Smith	OLB	Appalachian St.
6	32 (297)	Ricky Elmore	OLB/DE	Arizona
7	15 (218)	Ryan Taylor	TE	North Carolina
7	30 (233)	Lawrence Guy	DT	Arizona St.

 

Just like we’ve come to expect, GM Ted Thompson was patient, calculated, and successful. He stood pat at 32 when his phone was blowing up with teams looking to trade up for a QB, and walked away with a future replacement for Chad Clifton. In the last two drafts, Thompson has nabbed two young, talented tackles who will likely be protecting Aaron Rodgers for the next 10 years. For that fact alone, this draft was a success.

The theme for Green Bay has always been selecting the best player available. Randall Cobb earned a late first round grade from the Packers staff, and could be a steal when we look back at this draft five years down the road. Cobb will provide an instant live to the return game, and adds options to the offense (he can line up in the slot, as a RB, or even a wildcat QB). Green averaged 8.2 yards a carry for Hawaii, and is the scat back the Packers have been missing the last few season.

Thompson has had a run of recent success with late round picks, and the hope is that this group will show some of the same returns as the team got in 2010 from C.J. Wilson, Andrew Quarless and James Starks last year. D.J. Williams was a steal in the 5^th rounds, as was fellow TE Ryan Taylor in the 7^th. Taylor adds versatility as an h-back as well. Ricky Elmore has a chance to develop into a pass-rusher, and D.J. Smith could make an impact in a year or two.

Best Pick:  Sherrod. He was slated to go in the 20s, and fell to the Packers at 32. He will get a chance to learn for a year or two under Chad Clifton, and will be a starter for a long time.

Questionable Move: I like a lot of what Green Bay did over the three day stretch, but I wonder if addressing the pass rush should have been a higher priority. Cobb was one of my favorite picks, but he’s a luxury for an already potent offense. This was one of the richest DE/OLB drafts in recent memory, and Green Bay didn’t get in on the action until the 6^th round. Still, Thompson has been successful in the late rounds, so we’ll see what kind of production the team gets from Smith and Elmore this year.

Minnesota Vikings: C

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
1	12 (12)	Christian Ponder	QB	Florida St.
2	11 (43)	Kyle Rudolph	TE	Notre Dame
4	9 (106)	Christian Ballard	DT	Iowa
5	8 (139)	Brandon Burton	CB	Utah
6	3 (168)	Demarcus Love	OT	Arkansas
6	5 (170)	Mistral Raymond	S	South Florida
6	7(172)	Brandon Fusco	C	Slippery Rock
6	35 (200)	Ross Homan	OLB	Ohio State
7	12 (215)	De’Aundre Reed	DE	Arizona
7	33 (236)	Stephen Burton	WR	West Texas A&M

 

This draft will ultimately be graded on how Christian Ponder does as the starting quarterback. Simply put: The Vikings got nervous and flinched. Minnesota could have traded down into the 20s and still got Ponder, plus a second rounder this year, or a first rounder next year. Instead, the Vikings worried that a run on quarterbacks were coming, and made sure they got in on the action. Hindsight might be 20/20, but you have to also question why Minnesota had Ponder as the guy as opposed to an Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick? Ponder is extremely smart and a cerebral player who is the most ready to play now. But he really struggled to stay healthy at Florida State, and his arm strength could be exposed at places like Chicago and Green Bay. Minnesota clearly likes the upside of Ponder, but I think they handled the first round poorly.

That being said, Minnesota did a nice job with their next few picks. Ponder already has weapons like Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin. Getting the top tight end on the board, Kyle Rudolph, makes this offense even more potent and should help in both the passing and running game. Christian Ballard fills a need at defensive tackle, and could have been a late first round pick if not for a marijuana arrest during his senior year. Burton and Love were strong picks and should see the field this next year. The sleeper of this draft class will likely be Brandon Fusco, who could be the starting center by the end of the year.

Best Pick: Fusco. It was an off the radar pick, but he’s got the physical tools to develop into an excellent player. He needs some coaching and practice time against better competition, but Fusco is an instant upgrade of John Sullivan.

Questionable Move:   Ponder. The draft is not a time to get impatient, but that’s what Minnesota did. Now it’s up to the coaching staff to make sure Ponder has everything he needs to succeed immediately.

Chicago Bears: B

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
1	29 (29)	Gabe Carimi	OT	Wisconsin
2	21 (53)	Stephen Paea	DT	Oregon State
3	29 (93)	Chris Conte	S	California
5	29 (160)	Nathan Enderle	QB	Idaho
6	30 (195)	J.T. Thomas	OLB	West Virginia

 

While the Packers and Lions had successful drafts because they took the best players available, Chicago walked away from the draft a winner because it filled its biggest needs. Gabe Carimi was a no-brainer when he fell to 29. The Bears even tried to trade up with Baltimore to pick Carimi at 26, but in classic ‘phone tag’ fashion, miscommunication led to the Bears not informing the league office that they signed off on the trade. The blunder didn’t end up costing the Bears or Ravens, who both got their guy. Carimi gives Chicago a much-needed boost in talent on the offensive line, and he’s ready to move into the starting lineup immediately.

Chicago filled another big need in the second round picking up Paea with the 53^rd pick. I had Paea going at the beginning of the second round, so he’s also a good value at this spot. With the team’s release of Tommie Harris, getting Paea was a best case scenario. He’s incredibly strong (set an NFL Combine record with 49 repetitions of 225 pounds) and will win over his teammates thanks to his excellent motor.

The final three picks do not wow me, but Chris Conte and J.T. Thomas should contribute on special teams. Conte will likely get a shot to start in training camp, and will have a good shot if Daniel Manning is not resigned. Nathan Enderle is a developmental project, but has a lot of enviable physical tools. The quarterback position is solid right now with Jay Cutler and Caleb Hanie, so Enderle won’t be rushed onto the field.

Best Pick: Carimi. Chicago needed an upgrade in both its run and pass blocking, and they got the best tackle left in Carimi. Like the Wisconsin offensive linemen that have come before him, Carimi is a mauler who projects best as a right tackle. He should be a regular contributor for the next decade.

Questionable Move: Waiting until 6^th round to pick a linebacker. Chicago currently has a hole on at OLB, where Pisa Tinoisamoa, Nick Roach, and Brian Uwoh all set to hit free agency. Clearly the Bears think they’ll be able to sign at least one of them back next year, but it would have made sense to hedge their bet.

Detroit Lions: A-

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
1	13 (13)	Nick Fairley	DT	Auburn
2	12 (44)	Titus Young	WR	Boise St.
2	25 (57)	Mikel Leshoure	RB	Illinois
5	26 (157)	Douglas Hogue	OLB	Syracuse
7	6 (209)	Johnny Culbreath	OT	South Carolina St.

 

After years of being the laughingstock of the draft weekend, Detroit has come up with three of the best drafts in recent memory. The team is no longer forcing the issue, and picking its spots to make impact moves. After picking up Ndamukung Suh last year, defensive tackle certainly was no longer a position of need. But when Fairley fell to Detroit at 13, the team made the smart move in pairing their superstar with another potential superstar. Call it a luxury pick if you wish, but the Lions now have the scariest defensive tackle combo in the league, and their NFC North brethren are shaking in their boots.

Getting Titus Young in the second round might pay off even bigger dividends for Detroit. Young is the speedy slot receiver the team has been missing since they drafted Calvin Johnson. Young will force defenses to stop shading its coverage to Megatron’s side, and will make the league’s most physically talented player even more dangerous.

The Lions traded up to select Mikel Leshoure in the second round. The team traded up in 2010 to select Jahvid Best, a move that paid off immediately. Leshoure is a thumper, who will provide to the thunder to Best’s lightning. He also adds extra insurance in case Best continues to battle with injuries. The running back position is now set for the next five years. Hogue will challenge for a starting job in training camp, while Culbreath projects to be a developmental prospect, though he does possess good size.

Best Pick: Fairley. He adds instant talent to an already solid defensive line. The rich got even richer.

Questionable Move: Passing on need positions. The Lions biggest offseason needs were linebacker and cornerback, but only one pick (Hogue) addressed either need. With a number of their top cornerbacks set to hit free agency, the Lions need a lot of help in the secondary. If the team cannot resign Chris Houston, this could be an egregious error.

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Another draft has come and gone, which means instead of rating the prospects or the drafts, we can finally evaluate how the teams did. Detroit was the class of the NFC North, which is something that would have seemed inconceivable just a couple years ago. They got impact players at some big position, and selected the best player in the draft in Ndamukong Suh. Green Bay and Minnesota didn’t need to fill a lot of needs in this draft, and both did a good job of adding depth. Chicago didn’t have a lot of picks, but made the most of each of them.

Green Bay Packers: B-

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
1	23(23)	Bryan Bulaga	OT	Iowa
2	24(56)	Michael Neal	DT	Purdue
3	7(71)	Morgan Burnett	S	Georgia Tech
5	23(154)	Andrew Quarless	TE	Penn State
5	38(169)	Marshall Newhouse	G	TCU
6	24(193)	James Stark	RB	Buffalo
7	23(230)	C.J. Wilson	DE	East Carolina

GM Ted Thompson could not have been happier when Bryan Bulaga slid down to Green Bay at 23. As outlined in the ‘Rate the Drafters’ blog, Thompson has always followed the ‘best player available’ philosophy. In this case, it just so happened that Bulaga was the best player on the board and fit a team need. Bulaga will provide toughness and a good work ethic to an offensive line that struggled last season. He should compete for playing time right away. He could slide inside to guard next season before taking over for either Clifton or Tauscher.

After their first pick, the Packers draft took a turn. They reached for Michael Neal, who will move outside in the 3-4. The problem with that is 3-4 ends are supposed to be stout against the run, one thing Neal was not in college. Also, Thompson picking a player with work ethic problems is certainly not going to excite Green Bay fans after having to watch Justin Harrell jog during practices (and infrequently during games) for the past three years.

This was an interesting draft to grade because Green Bay, regularly one of the league’s youngest teams, didn’t enter the draft with a ton of needs. Burnett was a safe pick, but still needs a year or two to improve. Newhouse has good size, but needs to work on his technique. Starks has the potential to be a steal for Green Bay. The big question is whether he can remain healthy.

In all, Green Bay received a B- minus because, although not entering the draft with a lot of needs, they failed to address one of their biggest ones: a pass-rushing linebacker to play opposite Clay Matthews. They also could have also used another cornerback.

Minnesota Vikings: B

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
2	2(34)	Chris Cook	CB	Virginia
2	19(51)	Toby Gerhart	RB	Stanford
4	2(100)	Everson Griffen	DE	USC
5	30(161)	Chris DeGeare	G	Wake Forest
5	36(167)	Nate Triplett	ILB	Minnesota
6	30(199)	Joe Webb	QB	UAB
7	7(214)	Mickey Schuler	TE	Penn State
7	30(237)	Ryan D’Imperio	ILB	Rutgers

Minnesota entered the draft in a very similar position to Green Bay, with not a lot of holes to fill. The Vikings got good value on CB Chris Cook after trading back with Detroit. He provides good height (6’2”) and immediate depth behind Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffen. He was the highest rated player left on the Vikings board.

Toby Gerhart finished second in Heisman voting for a reason. He’s similar to Mike Alstott in that he’s a powerful downhill runner and a great fit as a goal line back. He will not add the pass-catching dimension that Chester Taylor did, but should take some of the workload off of do-it-all runner Adrian Peterson. At the very least, that should mean a little more tread on the tire at the end of the season, when Peterson generally starts to slow down.

Everson was a good value in the third round. He was projected as a potential first round pick, but fell because of character issues. That will scare off general managers in the first round, but it’s less of a pill to swallow in the third. He will provide depth behind Jared Allen and Ray Edwards. Chris DeGeare has the makeup of an NFL guard (6’3”, 325 lbs) but he did not always produce in college. Triplett has a high motor, and could help in special teams. Webb played QB in college, but will likely try to make the transition to wideout. Shuler and D’Imperio are limited athletes, and will likely not make the roster.

Overall, the team made solid selections in the first three rounds. The question for Minnesota is whether any of the rookies will make a big impact on the field next year.

Chicago Bears: B-

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
3	11(75)	Major Wright	S	Florida
4	11(109)	Corey Wootton	DE	Northwestern
5	10(141)	Joshua Moore	CB	Kansas State
6	12(181)	Dan LeFevour	QB	Central Michigan
7	11(218)	J’marcus Webb	OT	West Texas A&M

The Bears traded away their first two picks for Jay Cutler and the late Gaines Adams. However, unlike Green Bay and Minnesota, they entered the draft with a number of needs. Safety was a position the team was targeting, and the Chicago brass was thrilled that Florida’s Major Wright was available. Wright showed good athleticism and toughness as a starter for a national title contender. Wright, coupled with newly (re)acquired Chris Harris, immediately improves the position.

In the fourth, the Bears took a chance on Wootton, who before an ACL tear in 2008, was looking like a potential first round pick. As he’s come back from the surgery, he’s shown toughness and a good motor. He has the frame and intensity to develop into a future starter. Same goes for Moore, who is at his best in bump and run coverage. Webb has a good frame, but will need a lot of individual attention to convert his size into production.

The dark horse of Chicago’s draft would have to be Dan LeFevour. A hometown kid who idolized the Bears growing up, put up some big-time numbers at Central Michigan. He’s got great mobility and a solid work ethic, but might struggle switching from a spread offense to the pro-style system run by the Bears.

The Bears did the best they could with limited picks. They never reached for a player and filled a few positions of need.

Detroit Lions: A

RD	PK (OVR)	Name	Position	School
1	2(2)	Ndamukong Suh	DT	Nebraska
1	30(30)	Jahvid Best	RB	California
3	2(66)	Amari Spievey	CB	Iowa
4	30(128)	Jason Fox	OT	Miami (FL)
7	6(213)	Willie Young	DE	NC State
7	48(255)	Tim Toone	WR	Weber State

Detroit entered the draft knowing that they needed an infusion of talent at just about every position. Picking near the top of every round, they did not need to reach to get a player. It’s funny to see how different something as simple as dropping Matt Millen has improved how the Lions draft. This was by far the best draft in the NFC North.

The Lions were in the enviable position at pick two to grab the best player in the draft, and have him also fill a need. Suh, whose name actually translates to ‘House of Spears,’ lives up to the name. He is an absolute beast in the middle. He is already slotted to start, and has the potential to be an elite run-stuffer who can also cause havoc for quarterbacks.

At the end of the first, the Lions moved back into the first round to get a player they had ranked ‘best’ on their board in Jahvid Best. Lame pun aside, Best showed incredible explosiveness while at Cal. He offers the big-play potential in the running game that the team sorely lacked in previous seasons. The big issue for Best is his health; he had trouble staying on the field in college. But if he can remain healthy, he will make an immediate impact on the Lions offense.

Amari Spievey was a good value pick in the third. He’s a physical corner who displayed good ball skills in college. He has a chance to compete for playing time as a rookie. Fox is big (6’7”) with good footwork for his size. The Lions’ offensive line is still a work in progress, so he has a chance to see the field right away. But he will need to work in the weight room before he can be counted on to give consistent effort. Willie Young will serve as a situational pass rusher as a rookie while he works on putting weight on his frame. If he does, he could become a dangerous defensive end in a few years. Toone is a slot receiver, but because he’s undersized and from a small school, he might have trouble making the transition to the NFL.

Overall, Detroit greatly increased the talent of their team in the last two drafts. They team now has a good nucleus of young stars (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Louis Delmas, Brandon Pettigrew and now Best and Suh). They have the players to become a big factor in the division in two or three years.

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Green Bay Packers: B+

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Total Picks	11	12	11	9	8
Starters	2	5	2	2	2
Backups	2	1	6	6	5
Other Team	0	4	3	1	1
Out of League	7	2	0	0	0

GM Ted Thompson has led the Packers war room for the past five years, and Green Bay has really built the core of their team on draft day. Every general manager understands how the draft can help your team, but for Thompson, draft weekend is when the majority of the roster is built. Can you name the last high profile free agent Green Bay has signed outside of Charles Woodson? Packer fans looking for the front office to reach for a position of need will likely be disappointed on Thursday. Thompson almost always takes the best player available.

The past five drafts have really produced 13 starters and four trips to the Pro Bowl in the last two seasons: Nick Collins (twice), Aaron Rodgers, and Clay Matthews. Thompson has hit big early (Rodgers, Greg Jennings, B.J. Raji and Matthews) and has also found some guys later on (Jermichael Finley, T.J. Lang, Brad Jones and Johnny Jolly). But Thompson is not without his faults. Former first round pick Justin Harrell was a colossal flop. A.J. Hawk wasn’t the game changer many thought the Packers were getting with the number five pick. But the misses are far outweighed by the hits.

Minnesota Vikings: B+

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Total Picks	6	6	8	5	5
Starters	0	3	2	2	2
Backups	0	2	1	2	3
Other Team	2	0	3	0	0
Out of League	4	1	2	1	0

What can you say about the Vikings and VP of player personnel Rick Spielman? When they hit, they hit big.  In 2007, Spielman had a 1,000 rusher in Chester Taylor, but stuck to his guns and selected the top player on his board: RB Adrian Peterson. It’s the reason Spielman chose Sidney Rice over the highly touted Dwayne Jarrett. Spielman and his draft team use a mathematical system to break down the prospects, placing players in groups based on potential, health, productivity, etc. and then assign each player a number.

It’s that combination of scouting and boldness that’s helped add some big-time talent to the roster. 2009 was no different. The team got great production from first round pick Percy Harvin (the NFC Rookie of the Year), and second round pick Phil Loadholt. But for the big hitters the Vikings have drafted as of late, they’ve also swung and missed more than once. The 2005 draft is one Minnesota fans would like to forget. They missed badly on both first round picks: Troy Williamson and Erasmus James. No one from the draft is still in a purple and gold roster, and four (including James) are out of the league.

Chicago Bears: C

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Total Picks	6	7	9	12	9
Starters	0	1	1	4	1
Backups	0	3	4	3	6
Other Team	3	0	0	2	1
Out of League	3	3	4	3	1

It hasn’t always been pretty in the Windy City. General manager Jerry Angelo has served the post for nine seasons, but his draft history is one reason why he’s on the hot seat. He used to stockpile picks, oftentimes trading down. Recently, Angelo’s gutted the draft in an attempt to win now. The Jay Cutler trade cost Chicago two first round picks, and this past season he traded his 2010 second round pick for the late Gaines Adams. The 2010 season will show if this new strategy was smart.

There are plenty of misses like Dan Banzuin, Dusty Dvorcek, and Mark Bradley. But what might be more frustrating for Angelo is that some of his previous picks (Cedric Benson, Kyle Orton, and Chris Harris) have found success elsewhere. Whether that speaks to the drafter or the coaching is an answer that might be determined this next offseason. It hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Chicago. There have been hits like Devin Hester, Greg Olson and the steal of last year’s draft: Johnny Knox. But the hits are few and far between.

Detroit Lions: C-

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Total Picks	6	7	8	9	9
Starters	0	0	1	4	4
Backups	0	1	2	3	3
Other Team	2	2	3	1	1
Out of League	4	4	2	1	1

It’s amazing the damage that one man can do. Matt Millen may have set the team back a decade. Even as the team attempts to sift through the rubble rebuild, there is a severe talent gap between the Lions and much of the rest of the league. From 2002-2006, Detroit selected 39 players, only one is still on Detroit’s roster (safety Daniel Bullocks). Millen missed on three separate first round wide receivers: Charles Rodgers, Mike Williams, and Roy Williams (whose production didn’t match his contract).

GM Martin Mayhew took over the job in 2009, and things are starting to turn. The one receiver Millen got right, Calvin Johnson, has a chance to be one of the best in the game. Last year, Mayhew found his franchise quarterback (Matthew Stafford), safety (Louis Delmas) tight end (Brandon Pettigrew) and a solid linebacker in DeAndre Levy. Two other picks, DT Sammie Hill and LB Zac Follett figure to see a lot of playing time in 2010. There may be some hope in Detroit, but they need to keep assembling talent. A best player available system would be the right call for a team that needs an infusion of talent.

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You can’t have a draft blog and not do a mock draft. I clearly don’t have the hair to be Mel Kiper Jr., nor do I have a team of scouts like Todd McShay. But I do follow the process closely, pour over stats from the Combine and the season, and watch more football than my fiancée would like me to admit.

With the 2010 NFL Draft just over a week away, many teams are getting their smoke machines ready to spew misinformation to try to throw reporters, fans, and other teams off the trail. But almost every team has their draft boards set, so I’ll do my best to see through the smoke and figure out what teams are actually thinking.

1. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

The Rams have passed on multiple franchise changing quarterbacks over the last few years in hopes of solidifying the defensive and offensive lines. Would the Rams still have the first selection if they would have pulled the trigger on a Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez? The team has won just six games since 2007 with Marc Bulger under center. That’s not good. It’s time to roll the dice on a signal caller with some upside. Bradford is extremely accurate, shows good poise in the pocket, and quite possibly could have been the top pick if he’d come out last year.

2. Detroit Lions: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

Suh was simply dominant this past season at Nebraska. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a defensive tackle overtake a game the way Suh did in the Big 12 championship game against Texas. He’s simply a special player. The Lions did not get much production out of the DT spot, and although they signed Corey Williams this summer, Detroit could still use and upgrade at the position. Suh will be a difference maker the day he arrives at the practice facility. A trade down could be a possibility if a team has fallen in love with QB Jimmy Clausen, but if Detroit keeps the pick, this is the guy to take.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

McCoy excelled in college as a penetrating defensive tackle. Put into the right system, he could pick up double digit sacks. McCoy has the ability to take on multiple blockers in the run and regularly beat his man in one-on-one situations. Tampa would be happy with either of the DTs, but McCoy might actually fit Tampa’s scheme better as a three technique tackle.

4. Washington Redskins: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

An argument can actually be made that the team should take QB Jimmy Clausen with this pick. Donovan McNabb will most likely be a one year rental, leaving the team thin at the quarterback position for the future. But the move for McNabb indicates Mike Shanahan and the Redskins want to win now. To do so, they’d better keep McNabb on his feet. Okung is solid in both the pass and run. He might not have the upside of some of a Trent Williams or Bruce Campbell, but he’s a much safer choice. He should step in well for retired OT Chris Samuels.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

If I were making this pick, I would select S Eric Berry. But reports out of Kansas City, coupled with the team’s draft last year, show the team will put a premium on positional value. Paying top-five money to a safety does not fit GM Scott Pioli’s draft philosophy. Using the positional value strategy, this pick will most likely be a tackle. Trent Williams is more athletic than Bulaga, but there are questions about Williams’ commitment and work ethic. Bulaga is a solid prospect, who will likely start at right tackle opposite former 1^st round pick Branden Albert.

6. Seattle Seahawks: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

If new coach Pete Carroll watched game film of the Seahawks last year, he should have seen how poorly the line played. And you won’t improve the passing game or rushing attack if you can’t block up front. All-Pro LT Walter Jones is no longer a part of the team, further decreasing the talent on the line. While there are concerns about Williams’ commitment to the game, he has very high upside and would clearly be an upgrade over anyone on the line.

7. Cleveland Browns: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

The Browns get a bargain at pick seven. Berry is the third rated player in the draft. He is a ball hawk who changes the way teams attack on offense. He is also able to come up and fill the box against the run. He’s a sure tackler. Comparisons to Ed Reed are not farfetched. There could be an outside chance that this pick could be Jimmy Clausen. Mike Holmgren is known as a quarterback guru. If he’s fallen in love with Clausen, he’ll pull the trigger.

8. Oakland Raiders: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

No one knows what Al Davis will do on draft day. You can’t use logic or reason when making a mock pick for Oakland. I mean, who saw Darius Heyward-Bey coming? One thing we know is that Davis loves guys who are athletic freaks. Campbell ran a 4.85 40 at the Combine. He’s 6-6, 314 pounds and did 34 reps of 225 pounds. Plus, Oakland needs help at the tackle position. Simply based on his measurables, I think it’s fair to assume Campbell’s the choice.

9. Buffalo Bills: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

The run on OT’s continues. Jimmy Clausen is clearly a choice for a team that had a lot of problems at the quarterback position last year. But it doesn’t matter who’s under center unless the Bills improve their line. Andy Levitre and Eric Wood stepped in and improved the interior of the line, but Jonathon Scott and Kirk Chambers were forgettable outside. New coach Chan Gailey wants to improve the passing game and that will start with keeping his QB upright. Davis is the best pure pass-blocker in the draft. Seems like a pretty solid match.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

This is a very tough pick to make. The Jaguars have needs at linebacker, safety, and defensive end. On top of that, the team has suffered economic problems. The Jaguars have problems filling their seats and had a number of games blacked out. Tim Tebow, a home state hero, would certainly put butts in the seats, but he may be a stretch. Tebow’s teammate could also be a fan favorite, and could help the team improve their pass defense, which is crucial when you play multiple games against teams like the Colts and Texans.

11. Denver Broncos: Earl Thomas, S, Texas

This pick would have been DT Dan Williams had the Broncos not signed Jamal Williams this summer. I think with Williams and Ronald Fields, the team feels confident at nose tackle. The Broncos got great production out of the safety position last year, but Brian Dawkins has one, maybe two good years left. His successor is not on the current roster. Thomas has the best instincts of anyone in the draft. He is even quick enough to work in the nickel and dime packages while he learns from one of the best. Other names to watch would be Renaldo McClain and Williams.

12. Miami Dolphins: Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee

Jason Ferguson regressed last season, is running out of years, and now comes news that he will be suspended to start the season. A 3-4 defense does not work without someone anchoring the interior of the defensive line. Williams is big, stout against the run, and is a smart player. Williams 5.17 at the Combine also indicates he could penetrate on passing downs.

13. San Francisco 49ers: Derrick Morgan, DE/OLB, Georgia Tech

The team would like to improve the offensive line, but there isn’t a prospect whose worth of selecting at 13. The team needs to improve their pass rush. Morgan is the best prospect of the end/rush linebackers in the draft. He was constantly in the backfield while playing at Georgia Tech. If the coaches believe he can play with speed without his hand in the ground, he’s the pick. Other players to watch would be Jason Pierre-Paul or Sergio Kindle.

14. Seattle Seahawks: C.J. Spiller, RB/KR, Clemson

We’ve seen what Pete Carroll has done with speedy backs while at USC (Reggie Bush comes to mind). Spiller is a homerun threat everytime he touches the ball, and is equally effective in the backfield or returning kicks. The teams already got their LT of the future, and a quarterback could quite possibly be the selection, but Spiller is the type of unique player that Carroll can turn into a star.

15. New York Giants: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama

McClain is the top inside linebacker in the draft. He’s able to quickly diagnose a play, and flows to the ball with speed. He has an NFL ready body, and should be able to stand up to the wear and tear of the league. The Giants weren’t thrilled with the production they got from the MLB position, and with Nation Pierce out of the picture, McClain would be a great pickup.

16. Tennessee Titans: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB, South Florida

Pierre-Paul is raw, but many think he could be the best player out of the draft in five years. The Titans defense was best when Jevon Kearse was terrorizing quarterbacks. Concerns about Pierre-Paul’s inexperience and knowledge of the game might be overlooked by Tennessee who have an experienced coach in Jeff Fischer. Pierre-Paul should work his way into the rotation next season before taking over in a year or two.

17.  San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame

It’s going to be a long wait for Clausen, but San Fran could be a good spot for the young signal caller. The 49ers were burned by a 1^st round quarterback before, but Clausen is more NFL ready than Alex Smith was, and he won’t be pushed to play immediately. It’s just hard to think of Clausen dropping farther than the 17, and he certainly is a good value for San Francisco.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Maurkice Pouncey, G, C: Florida

The Steelers got pass-happy last season, but indications are they’d like to get back to a power running game. The offensive line has been thin the past few years, and Pouncey could really improve either the guard or center spot.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

Graham really impressed at the Senior Bowl, and fits a big need for Atlanta. The Falcons didn’t get the production they wanted out of John Abraham. They need to generate more pressure. Graham shows great speed around the corner, and at 270 pounds, he can also standup against the run.

20. Houston Texans: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

The team was already thin at cornerback before they lost their best one, Dunta Robinson. The Texans drafted Mario Williams with Peyton Manning and the Colts in mind, so it shouldn’t be surprising they’d pick Wilson to compete against some of the pass-happy teams in their division. He’s solid in all areas of the game, and could even help in the return game.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

The Bengals used five different players at tight end, but none played very well. To take their offense to the next level, they need to find someone who can stretch the middle of the field. Gresham was injured and missed all of last season, but indications are that he is back to 100 percent. He is head and shoulders the top prospect at the position.

22. New England Patriots: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

Somewhere Bill Belichick is cursing under his breath about the previous pick. The Patriots have been looking for a difference maker at TE. But the consolation prize isn’t too bad either. Kindle was very prolific getting to the quarterback the past few years. The Patriots have gotten spotty production from the outside backer position, and Kindle could be part of a much needed youth movement at the position.

23. Green Bay Packers: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho

Iupati is not the prototypical tackle many fans are looking for. That being said, Iupati is an absolute beast and a guy fans will quickly get behind. He’s got a drive that you don’t often see. He could be the next Steve Hutchinson, a difference maker in both the run and pass who simply dominates every down. Iupati has the size and physical tools to move outside to tackle if needed.

24. Philadelphia Eagles: Taylor Mays, S, USC

Mays measurables jump off the page. He is big, fast and isn’t afraid to get physical. But a breakdown of game tape shows he’s not very good in coverage, and does not have fluid hips. The question is which Mays you get. At pick 24, his upside and physical tools are worth the risk.

25. Baltimore Ravens: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.

GM Ozzie Newsome is jumping up and down in the warroom if Bryant falls all the way to 25. Bryant is easily the top wideout, but questions about his off the field activities and maturity could make him drop down draft boards. Even with Anquan Boldin now in the picture, the team needs to surround Joe Flacco with better weapons. This is a good start.

26. Arizona Cardinals: Sean Witherspoon, LB, Missouri

The Cardinals lost Karlos Dansby in the offseason, and should look for his replacement here. Even with Dansby on the roster, the team wasn’t thrilled with the play of their inside linebackers. Witherspoon played outside in college, but has the makeup to easily move inside. He’s solid against the run and pass, and rarely misses a tackle.

27. Dallas Cowboys: Charles Brown, OT, USC

Flozell Adams is gone, and Marc Colombo has been injury prone. Doug Free played well as a replacement for Colombo last season, but he’s never played 16 games. Brown could provide depth and possibly compete for a starting spot.

28. San Diego Chargers: Terrance Cody, NT, Alabama

I know, I know, the team needs to replace LaDainian Tomlinson. But they also need to replace Jamal Williams on the interior, and guys who can effectively play nose tackle are few and far between. Cody was a force inside for Alabama, stuffing the run and proving to be proficient at blocking kicks. He can take on multiple blockers. He’ll need to keep his weight down and his conditioning up, but he’s a solid pick.

29. New York Jets: Jared Odrick, DT/DE, Penn State

The Jets defensive line is aging, and an infusion of youth is needed. Odrick has a quick first step, and could develop into a starter on the end. He’s got a high motor, which should mesh well with coach Rex Ryan.

30. Minnesota Vikings: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama

Everyone knows the Vikings run defense is one of the best in the league. But while the focus continues to be on the front four, Minnesota has slowly become thin at the corner position. Antoine Winfield has battled injuries, and is on the backside of his career. Jackson should contribute in nickel or dime packages and eventually take over for Winfield.

31. Indianapolis Colts: Jerry Hughes, DE, TCU

Hughes is a bit undersized for the 4-3 defense, but the Colts have struck gold on another undersized end (Dwight Freeney). DE is actually a strong position for the Colts, but there is not much behind Freeney and Robert Mathis. Nowhere was that more evident than against the Saints. Hughes could rotate in and step up for spot starts.

32. New Orleans Saints: Brian Price, DT, UCLA

The Saints didn’t have many weaknesses last year, but they could use an upgrade on the defensive line, specifically against the run. Price is 6-2, 300 pounds, but still has a very quick first step. He has the ability to collapse the pocket with his speed and motor.



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