Unless something unbelievable and unexpected happens between now and the stroke of midnight Saturday night, the month of March 2012 will go down as the warmest on record for Eau Claire.  The numbers are not even close compared to previous Marches.  Check out the stats below:

Warmest Marches and Average Temp. for that Month

1. **2012 – 47.9°
2. 1910 – 44.6°
3. 1946 – 41.9°
4. 1973 – 39.7°
5. 1945/2010 – 39.6°

** – In Progress

Top Five Warmest Marches for Eau Claire

The list above is ordered from highest to lowest in overall average temperature.  Basically, take every hourly observation from 12 AM March 1st through midnight March 31st and find the average.  A three degree difference between 2012 and 1910 is impressive, but it gets better!  Read the next two paragraphs and you will understand why.

March 1910 still holds on to the title of warmest high temperature average with 58.3°, but barely.  March 2012 is close behind at 57.7°.  This statistic will remain the same, unless our daytime high is above 83° Saturday afternoon. 

So how will March 2012 overall be significantly warmer than March 1910?  The average low temperature for March 2012 is 38.1°, a tremendous seven degrees warmer compared to March 1910′s 30.9° average.  In fact, March 1948 is the second warmest on record at 31.8°.  Maple syrup producers around the area will tell you this spring was the worst sapping season they can ever recall.  With only 11 mornings below freezing this month, that’s not surprising.  1910 was slightly better with 18 mornings at or below freezing.

Finally, I can’t go without mentioning the number of new temperature records established this month.  Ten daytime high records were logged, while eleven warmest, overnight lows were recorded.  That’s a total of 21 temperature records! 

What we have witnessed this month as far as temperature is unprecedented.  It will likely be several years, or a lifetime, before this happens again in our area.  Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

Beginning this week, I’m starting something new on my weather blog that I hope you will enjoy and find valuable.  It’s called “Week in a Word.”  Basically, each Monday, I will lay out the forecast for the entire week and explain why I’m convinced it will be warmer, colder, wetter, drier, etc.  Yes, I guess I could have called this “Your Week’s Forecast,” but even I know that sounds boring.  Really, let’s make it fun and sum it all up in one word!

—

Tuesday's Forecast Highs

Wild.  This week will be wild, especially from the start.  It will not be wild because of a huge, nasty winter storm; rather, the wind and roller “coastering” temperatures will be the top two weather conversation pieces.

Below is the forecast prepared Monday AM.  For more specifics, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny and Windy, Highs: 70s
• Wednesday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s
• Friday – Showers Possible, Highs: Upper 40s/50s
• Saturday & Sunday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: 60s

Off the bat, you probably see why I write the beginning of the week will feature roller “coastering” temperatures.

Short-term, through Wednesday…An area of low pressure will slide out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday, intensifying along the way.  Ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through western Wisconsin, turning winds from the east to the south Tuesday morning.  With the front and other low-level forcing factors, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late Monday and very early Tuesday.  The best chance of thunder will be far to the south; I expect most of the WQOW viewing area to experience periods of light rain.

Back to the wind – the wind will be quite strong at times, Monday through Wednesday, due to a tight pressure gradient.  (In short, a tight pressure gradient means a large difference in air pressure over a small distance, which results in strong winds.)  On Tuesday afternoon, the combination of sunshine, a strong south wind, a warm air mass aloft and the mixing of drier air should allow the temperature to rise into the lower 70s, about 25 degrees above our average.  This taste of summer will be short-lived, thanks to a cold front dropping into the region Tuesday night.  No precipitation is expected at this time.  On Wednesday, highs closer to seasonal averages will be common.

Overall, I don’t see to many variations in the short-term forecast.  You may notice temperatures raised/lowered a degree or two, and the slight possibility of thunder in our area.  Honestly, the models do not suggest the appropriate environment for thunderstorms.

GFS: Jetstream Position at 7 PM Saturday

Long-term, into this weekend…Thursday looks quiet, but Friday and this weekend is tricky.  The two forecast models we rely on the most, the GFS and the ECMWF, have differing opinions on how the weather will play out.  The GFS suggests a fast-moving trough passing through Wisconsin early Friday, triggering some rain for our area.  It then develops a ridge of high pressure over the mid-section of the country, including Wisconsin.  Likely, this will lead to sunny and dry weather.  However, ECMWF model, which usually performs the best, advertises a train of small ridges and troughs, meaning periods of wet and dry weather.  While it’s tough to tell what the weather will be like given the discrepancy, my gut feeling tells me this weekend will probably be dry, though a lingering shower or two is possible early Saturday from Friday’s rain.

Next week, above-average temperatures are likely, but rain is tough to pin-point at this time.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

Free.  Informative.  Life-saving.  It’s just three of many ways I describe the National Weather Service’s Skywarn training classes held each spring, right here in western Wisconsin.  The class schedule is out, and I truly hope you are able to make room in your busy schedule to attend one of these classes.  Not only will you walk away knowing more about about severe weather, but perhaps you may feel a sense of security the next time strong thunderstorms affect your area.

Here’s my point about security: say you are a parent of a child who is terrified of thunderstorms.  My mom and dad know that very well, because when I was young, I didn’t like thunderstorms at all.  In times of uncertainty and fear, kids look to their parents for answers and comfort.  When severe weather threatens, how would you feel if, in addition to reports on TV or radio, you could look out the window and say, “it’s OK.  It’s going to miss us.”  A little less stressed?  What if you are camping, and you have limited access to media?  Will you be able to look in the distance and usher your family to the safety shelter, knowing the storm will violent?

Courtesy: National Weather Service

In the Skywarn classes, you will pick up a few tidbits of information and instantly use it to your advantage.  The class will also teach about reporting specific storm features to the National Weather Service.  If you not interested in that committment, that’s perfectly fine.  Overall, the goal is the protect you and your property.

Here is a list of upcoming classes in our area (ordered by date):

• Barron – Monday, March 26, 2PM & 7PM at the courthouse
• Balsam Lake – Tuesday, March 27, 2PM & 6:30 PM at the government center
• Ellsworth – Wednesday, April 4, 7 PM at the courthouse
• Eau Claire – Tuesday, April 17, 7 PM at Grace Lutheran Church
• Owen – Wednesday, April 18, at Meadowview Golf Course
• Baldwin – Saturday, May 5, 8 AM at the Ag Service & Education Center

If you have any questions, feel free to send me an email at ngrunseth@wqow.com.  Thanks for reading, and keep it tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

February Temperature Plot -- Courtesy: NWS-Twin Cities

Aside from making up lost time, I never thought one extra day every four years would make a big difference.   Sure, there are a select few that were born on February 29th, and I am absolutely in favor of celebrating their special day.  But really…what difference could one day, one February 29th make?  Well, after this past Wednesday, I stand…or write…corrected, by Mother Nature.

Before I explain the impact of having one extra day in 2012, I need to catch you up to speed with my thoughts.  As the calendar flipped from February to March, meteorologists closed the book on the winter of 2011-2012 and welcomed the “spring” season.  Technically, spring does not arrive until just after midnight on March 20th.  However, to keep records consistent and open to comparison with past seasons, it was decided long ago that the meteorological spring would run from March 1st to May 31st.

Anyway, once the final weather observation was logged, all the weather nerds, including me , dug into the data so we could see how the winter lined up with past seasons.  To no surprise, the winter of 2011-2012 was milder compared to others.  However, believe it or not, we actually ended above average for moisture.  Check out these numbers:

• Mean Temperature (DJF): 23.9° — 5th warmest on record
• Liquid Precip. (Rain/Meltwater): 3.58″ (+0.88″)
• Snow: 21.9″ (-8.1″ [3 month departure]) — 37th driest on record.

Drought Outlook --- Courtesy: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

True.  If you look at the snow amount, we fell well below our average snow amount.  But we received a lot more rain and sleet than usual.  The final observation for liquid on February 28th was 0.89″, and had the winter ended then, we would have finished 0.01″ above average.  However, that one extra day allowed us to pile on another 0.87″ of liquid.  In final, the winter of 2011-2012 will go down as the 41st wettest on record.

Posted under Hometown Weather