Cool.  If we were to experience average readings this week, we would need daytime highs around 60 and overnight lows near 35.  Unfortunately, much of our time the next few days will be below average.   On the flipside, our threat of severe weather will remain low and pesky bugs will be mininal.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For a current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Morning Rain/Snow, Highs: Low 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Wednesday – Showers Early, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Mid 60s
• Thursday – Mid-Day Showers, Highs: Near 50
• Friday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: Low 50s
• Saturday/Sunday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s

Aside from Monday morning’s snow, the highlight this week will be showers and thunderstorms before dawn Wednesday morning.

GFS model suggesting where ridge will be at 7 PM Monday.

Short-term, through Thursday… A mixed bag of weather is expected through Thursday, with periods of sun/clear sky and rain.  Two low pressure systems will affect the area.  The first, late Tuesday night, will kick up showers and isolated thunderstorms in the region, as a warm front lifts northeast.  The following cold front may spark isolated showers Wednesday morning.  In total, if the rain develops accordingly, the Chippewa Valley will pick up 1/10″ to 2/10″, or more.  A second low will pass just south of Wisconsin Thursday, but close enough that mid-day showers will plague the area.  The cloud cover and rain on Thursday will limit temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Long-term, Friday and this weekend… An upper-level ridge will build into the middle of the country this weekend, keeping our sky relatively clear.  This pattern will last into the first half of next week, according to the latest model runs.  Temperatures will begin cool this weekend, but gradually improve above average by the start of next week.

Have a great day and keep it tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

Monday's Fire Danger

Dry.  I picked “dry” as this week’s word, not only because we will remain dry until this weekend, but also because of the dangerous fire conditions in western Wisconsin.  The Wisconsin DNR says the threat of fire danger is “very high” or “extreme” for the entire state.  Click HERE for a look at the current fire danger for Wisconsin.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For the current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Sunny, Windy, Highs: Upper 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Breezy at Times, Highs: Mid 40s
• Wednesday – Sunny, Highs: Low 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Low 60s
• Friday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Near 60
• Saturday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Upper 60s
• Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Mid 60s

This weekend, rain is a good bet.  It is hard to say exactly when the rain will affect us, but the models have been consistent on two systems sparking showers and thunderstorms.

Short-term, through Thursday…The biggest concern the next few days is a hard freeze during the overnights.  As Canadian high pressure gradually settles into the Upper Midwest, expect cooler than average temperatures Monday and Tuesday.  Thankfully, because of a lack of moisture in the low atmosphere, we will experience mostly sunny conditions.  On Monday and Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the 20s for several hours, alarming news for those with outdoor plants.  Wednesday morning will be cold too, but just below freezing.  Please, if you are able and this affects you, take necessary precautions to avoid damage.

Eventually, by Wednesday, the wind will lighten and turn south, laying the groundwork for a return to the 50s and 60s.  It will still be breezy at times.

GFS Precipitation Suggestion for 1 PM Friday, April 13

Long-term, Friday and this weekend…I am 80% or more confident it will rain this weekend, but *when* is the big question.  The two, most reliable long-range models suggest a warm front lifting north through the area on Friday.  However, there is a several hour difference in timing of the front, meaning a several hour difference in precipitation.  The two models are more consistent on Saturday night and possibly part of Sunday with alike forcing in the lower and higher levels of the atmosphere. 

After much research and thought, I think the first half of Friday will be wet, as well as Saturday evening and Sunday morning.  Between those times, a few showers or thunderstorms will certainly be possible, but it’s more likely much of the area will be dry.  The forecast models suggest anywhere of 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ of rain will fall this weekend.  This range will likely change, but it’s not unreasonable.  It would certainly be welcomed news for area fire officials and residents.

Have a great day and feel free to email me with questions: ngrunseth@wqow.com.  Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

7 Day Forecast (Produced Monday, April 2 - AM)

Tranquil.  Aside from a few showers and isolated thunderstorms late Monday night and early Tuesday morning, a fairly quiet week is on tap for western Wisconsin with, yet again, above average temperatures.  However, we can not rule out one or two sub-freezing mornings in the area.

Below is the forecast prepared on Monday AM.  For more specifics and the most up-to-date info, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 60s
• Tuesday – Showers Very Early, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s
• Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Friday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Saturday/Sunday – Chance of Showers, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Upper 50s

The Easter holiday weekend looks decent; overall, nothing out of the ordinary in comparison to our recent weather trend.

Short-term, through this week…A weak low pressure area and incoming cold front will work to bring us a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday night.  The latest indications suggest most of the rain will track south, but not far enough to rule out rain for the Chippewa Valley.  This is good news considering the fire danger.  As of Monday, it is low to moderate, but a few days of dry weather will allow the threat to increase to high.

Canadian high pressure will settle in from the north late Tuesday, clearing out the sky and setting us up for a few quiet days.  While sunshine will be common, overnight lows will likely drop near or below freezing.  If you have any early growing or blooming plants, it will be a good idea to throw a blanket over those  on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights for the following mornings. 

GFS 850 mb Temps - Tuesday, April 10, 1 PM. Above the white line, the GFS model suggests readings at the ground could be in the 40s and 50s.

Long-term, for Easter weekend…It appears rain showers may pass through the area on Easter weekend, and if the timing is right, we cannot go without mentioning the slight potenial of non-accumulating snow.  An area of low pressure and potent mid-level trough will scoot across the northern tier of the U.S.  With a cold front dropping in later Saturday, I anticipate scattered showers and plenty of cloud cover.  *If* the activity lingers into Saturday night when temperatures cool into the lower/mid 30s, a few flakes may fall, especially in areas an hour’s drive north and east of Eau Claire.  No travel problems are expected.

Temperatures for next week may hold near average with the models suggesting a pool of cooler air nudging in from the northwest.  Hopefully, we will stay dry, at least during the overnights, as cooler air would allow for snow.  Personally, let’s leave the snow for next winter! 

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs