I  just learned a neat fact today.  Did you know last winter $2.1 billion was spent on tourism?**  Yes, billion with a “B”.  It’s a bigger number than I would have guessed!  Now, break that number down over the season, and on average, tourists spent about $20 million per day.  Wow!  Last season, that kind of green during a period of white certainly put a smile on many business that depend on winter tourism.

I’ll admit: I like mild weather, but I love the snow too.  However, after a few cold and snowy winters, I thought the recent mild patterns were a nice change of pace.  Unfortunately, my thoughts aren’t exactly helpful to businesses that depend on winter tourism.  When I look outside the window (blog post written pre-snowfall), I don’t really think of winter.  I think of spring, and spring activities like jogging, biking, prepping the garden, etc.  I’m sure many of you think of spring too.  Yes, the physical lack of snow has hit some winter recreation businesses hard.  But one has to admit the brown ground doesn’t help the mood!  Many businesses are open, pleading with people to come enjoy what they have to offer.

View from Christie Mountain near Bruce, WI (1/11/2012)

Let me give you a real life example.  My uncle, a ski instructor at a ski hill in northwest Wisconsin, wrote me an email, telling me they were open for business.  A paraphrased version, here’s what he wrote:

 “We are 100% open to skiing, snowboarding, and snowtubing!  Also, the crosscounty skiers are using the 12 miles of trail that is north of the hill.  So pass this on to whoever needs to see it.  It would make a great story on the nightly news that “YES” we still have winter.  Send them up!”

His ski hill, like most, makes their own snow.  In fact, the latest report states a 22″ base will all lifts running and nearly all trails open.  You could never guess that just by looking outside. 

There’s plenty of natural snow in Wisconsin too; you just have to know where to find it.  Since December 1st, Eau Claire has only received 7.7″ of snow.  Did you know in the same time frame, Hurley, WI has accumulated 30.0″?  Neighbor Eagle River hasn’t done too bad too, though much less – 16.5″.  Of course, these two locations are in far northern Wisconsin, in the Lake Superior snowbelt.  They typically receive 55″ to 65″ per year, about half credited to lake-effect snow.

Most Ski Hills in Good Shape in Wisconsin --- Image Courtesy: Wisconsin Dept. of Tourism

I had a nice phone conversation with a representative from the Wisconsin Department of Tourism this morning.  She told me they are “not too worried yet,” and that the tourism industry in Wisconsin is quite resilient.  She stated many small businesses have done a good job adapting to mild and dry weather streaks, offering additional products or unique promotions.  She said it’s the hotels, restaurants, snack shops – businesses of that nature – that have taken the biggest hit.  Think of it…if you’re a skier and you stop for snacks along the way or to gas up…it makes a difference!

Now, to find those snowshoes…looks like I’ll have to get the ladder!  Thanks for reading and safe travels tonight and tomorrow.  The roads will be icy.  Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

**Figure provided by Wisconsin Department of Tourism

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather

Fact: today is January 10th.  I know that because I checked the calendar this morning. ;-)  Plus, I’ve been counting down the days to my birthday, which is tomorrow, the 11th.  I just seemed like I was just celebrating my birthday.  My, how the time flies!  Ok, I digress…

January 10th: you know as well as I do it doesn’t feel like January outside!  Today, we will break shatter our standing high temperature record of 45 established in 1980.  With highs in the upper 40s and lows in the 20s, one could arguably claim it’s late March.  It’s absolutely unbelieveable!  In all my memory, I can’t remember a time when daytime highs were constantly in the 30s and 40s in early January.  In addition, I can’t remember a time when the first day of winter came and went, and we haven’t had a whole lot of snow to show for it.  Can you?

I don’t want to bore you with statistics, because we science people are good at that.  But just roll with me for a second.  Let’s consider December 2011 alone.  Last month, the overall, average temperature (mean) was 32.6 degrees, more than five degrees above the normal.  Think about that for a moment, and also note the mean temperature was above freezing!  It’s certainly not our warmest December on record; that happened in 1931.  But quite impressive!  So far, January’s mean temperature is 25.7 degrees, more than 10 degrees above  normal.

Many are asking: why in the world is it so warm outside?  Well, the “world” has a lot to with it.  I’m not talking about climate change, a topic I do want to discuss in the future, but from an unbiased point of view.  In short, I’m talking about the position of the polar jetstream, combined with other weather events.

Figure 1: Current track of Jetstreams. Polar jet is blue, subtropical jet is orange.

Take a look at Figure 1.  In general, the jetstream is a current of fast moving air in the higher levels of the atmosphere.  There are two jetstreams in each hemisphere, the polar and subtropical.  The polar jet is the strongest because is supported by the large temperature difference between the poles and mid-latitudes.  Meanwhile, the subtropical jet’s main driving force is Earth’s rotation.  My point: the jetstreams, especially the polar jet, separate colder air from warmer air.  As you see in Figure 1, the polar jet is positioned north of Wisconsin, meaning mild temperatures for us!

There’s a lot of discussion as to why the polar jet is north of us.  The most agreed upon theory is the Madden/Julian Oscillation.  (MJO)  I know, big phrase, and it’s even bigger problem to describe given its complexity.  The bottomline is the MJO is a pressure disturbance in the tropics that can modify the track of the jetstreams.  In our case, the disturbance, now located in the Pacific, is causing the polar jet to track north of the Midwest.

Figure 2: Three Month Precipitation Forecast, NA. Green (above average)/ Orange (below average) Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

Looking ahead, with an incoming cold front Wednesday morning, temperatures will dive below the seasonal average.  Thursday and Friday, we’ll be lucky to make it into the upper teens, 30 degrees colder compared to today and Monday.  But this cold snap is just a short-term deal.  For one, there’s no snow on the ground, so our temperature can rise quickly with the sun’s help.  Secondly, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) suggests temperatures will remain at or just above average through the rest of the winter season – back to the whole MJO thing.  The center does suggest near or above average precipitation though.  That’s good, in my opinion.  Since December 1, we’ve received less than a foot of snow, less than a decent winter storm.  Unbelievable…

Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather

Well, to say “new station” is kind of misleading.  If you’re an avid watcher of WQOW News 18, you may remember I was the weekend meteorologist from 2007 through most of 2009.  After a short leave of two and a half years, working on the morning show at our sister station WXOW in La Crosse, I’m back in Eau Claire.  It feels great to be part of the community again!  I hope 2012 is starting well for you, and I wish you best of luck and a prosperous new year.

For me, a new year not only brings a new job, but also a new opportunity to connect with you, my friends and neighbors.  In addition to my work on air and online, I’ll be keeping this neat blog called Beyond the Forecast.  Please, feel free to bookmark this blog, because I will be sharing some cool things along the way that you won’t want to miss!  If you’re an avid computer user like me, you sometimes need a go-to place online.  That’s my goal with this blog.  I’ll not only talk about the short and long range forecast, but we’ll get into some weird and cool science too.  I promise I won’t make it difficult, just fun!  I’m not limited to science either; discussions regarding the Chippewa Valley, news, and sports are not off the table!

Some things about me:  I graduated from UW-Madison with my Meteorology degree in 2007 and I earned the Certified Broadcast Meteorologist designation from the American Meteorological Society in 2009.  I love anything relating to the Wisconsin Badgers, the Packers, good food, great conversation, and fun.  My wife Britny and I were married in Eau Claire in July 2010, and we both grew up in a rural community just northeast of Eau Claire.  We are quite familiar with the area, but love meeting more people.  If you see us out and about, never be afraid to say hi!

So, stay tuned for a look Beyond the Forecast….

Nick

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather