Monday's Fire Danger

Dry.  I picked “dry” as this week’s word, not only because we will remain dry until this weekend, but also because of the dangerous fire conditions in western Wisconsin.  The Wisconsin DNR says the threat of fire danger is “very high” or “extreme” for the entire state.  Click HERE for a look at the current fire danger for Wisconsin.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For the current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Sunny, Windy, Highs: Upper 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Breezy at Times, Highs: Mid 40s
• Wednesday – Sunny, Highs: Low 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Low 60s
• Friday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Near 60
• Saturday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Upper 60s
• Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Mid 60s

This weekend, rain is a good bet.  It is hard to say exactly when the rain will affect us, but the models have been consistent on two systems sparking showers and thunderstorms.

Short-term, through Thursday…The biggest concern the next few days is a hard freeze during the overnights.  As Canadian high pressure gradually settles into the Upper Midwest, expect cooler than average temperatures Monday and Tuesday.  Thankfully, because of a lack of moisture in the low atmosphere, we will experience mostly sunny conditions.  On Monday and Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the 20s for several hours, alarming news for those with outdoor plants.  Wednesday morning will be cold too, but just below freezing.  Please, if you are able and this affects you, take necessary precautions to avoid damage.

Eventually, by Wednesday, the wind will lighten and turn south, laying the groundwork for a return to the 50s and 60s.  It will still be breezy at times.

GFS Precipitation Suggestion for 1 PM Friday, April 13

Long-term, Friday and this weekend…I am 80% or more confident it will rain this weekend, but *when* is the big question.  The two, most reliable long-range models suggest a warm front lifting north through the area on Friday.  However, there is a several hour difference in timing of the front, meaning a several hour difference in precipitation.  The two models are more consistent on Saturday night and possibly part of Sunday with alike forcing in the lower and higher levels of the atmosphere. 

After much research and thought, I think the first half of Friday will be wet, as well as Saturday evening and Sunday morning.  Between those times, a few showers or thunderstorms will certainly be possible, but it’s more likely much of the area will be dry.  The forecast models suggest anywhere of 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ of rain will fall this weekend.  This range will likely change, but it’s not unreasonable.  It would certainly be welcomed news for area fire officials and residents.

Have a great day and feel free to email me with questions: ngrunseth@wqow.com.  Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

9:20 AM, January 12.  Temperature: 11°, wind chill: -1°.

Yes, it does feel cold outside!  With highs today only reaching the middle teens and strong northwest winds, some would say it’s downright brutal outside.

This certainly isn’t the coldest weather we’ve experienced in the Chippewa Valley.  In fact, our low temperature average for this time of the year is 5°, while our average high is 23°.  But with readings in the 40s and low 50s earlier this week, you can’t help but feel chilled to the bone!  At least I do.  I don’t mind the snow, but I really don’t like the colder weather, especially when the utility bill comes.  There must be a mouse or a hamster spinning that wheel for me in the electric meter…

The talk about arctic air’s return has me thinking about something we haven’t discussed much this winter: wind chill.  The last few years, wind chill readings from -15° to -30° were not unheard of in western Wisconsin.  This year, as you know, it’s a different story.  But as I take a quick look at the long range temperature projections, I can tell you wind chill is something we’ll have to get a little more used to again.

Wind Chill Chart --- Courtesy: National Weather Service

Most have a basic understanding of wind chill, but if you don’t, that’s perfectly fine.  In short, the colder and winder conditions are, the colder it feels outside.  Check out the chart on the left, courtesy of the National Weather Service.  If the morning temperature is 0° and the wind is northwest at 15 mph, the wind chill is -19°.   Hopefully never this case, but -20° with a 15 mph wind, the wind chill will be -45°.  Why is the wind chill important?  If you study the chart, you’ll see different colors.  Frostbite can always occur anytime the temperature is below freezing, but it the process is much quicker when the wind chill is -18° or colder.

I’ll end today’s blog post with a trivia question I hope you’ll take a stab at.  Even if you don’t have a clue, don’t be afraid to chime in explaining how the cold affects you.  I would love to hear from you, and part of my job is helping people understand weather.  And, no cheating!   Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather