Beginning this week, I’m starting something new on my weather blog that I hope you will enjoy and find valuable. It’s called “Week in a Word.” Basically, each Monday, I will lay out the forecast for the entire week and explain why I’m convinced it will be warmer, colder, wetter, drier, etc. Yes, I guess I could have called this “Your Week’s Forecast,” but even I know that sounds boring. Really, let’s make it fun and sum it all up in one word!
Tuesday's Forecast Highs
Wild. This week will be wild, especially from the start. It will not be wild because of a huge, nasty winter storm; rather, the wind and roller “coastering” temperatures will be the top two weather conversation pieces.
Below is the forecast prepared Monday AM. For more specifics, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.
- Monday – Mostly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 40s
- Tuesday – Mostly Sunny and Windy, Highs: 70s
- Wednesday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 50s
- Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s
- Friday – Showers Possible, Highs: Upper 40s/50s
- Saturday & Sunday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: 60s
Off the bat, you probably see why I write the beginning of the week will feature roller “coastering” temperatures.
Short-term, through Wednesday…An area of low pressure will slide out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday, intensifying along the way. Ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through western Wisconsin, turning winds from the east to the south Tuesday morning. With the front and other low-level forcing factors, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late Monday and very early Tuesday. The best chance of thunder will be far to the south; I expect most of the WQOW viewing area to experience periods of light rain.
Back to the wind – the wind will be quite strong at times, Monday through Wednesday, due to a tight pressure gradient. (In short, a tight pressure gradient means a large difference in air pressure over a small distance, which results in strong winds.) On Tuesday afternoon, the combination of sunshine, a strong south wind, a warm air mass aloft and the mixing of drier air should allow the temperature to rise into the lower 70s, about 25 degrees above our average. This taste of summer will be short-lived, thanks to a cold front dropping into the region Tuesday night. No precipitation is expected at this time. On Wednesday, highs closer to seasonal averages will be common.
Overall, I don’t see to many variations in the short-term forecast. You may notice temperatures raised/lowered a degree or two, and the slight possibility of thunder in our area. Honestly, the models do not suggest the appropriate environment for thunderstorms.
GFS: Jetstream Position at 7 PM Saturday
Long-term, into this weekend…Thursday looks quiet, but Friday and this weekend is tricky. The two forecast models we rely on the most, the GFS and the ECMWF, have differing opinions on how the weather will play out. The GFS suggests a fast-moving trough passing through Wisconsin early Friday, triggering some rain for our area. It then develops a ridge of high pressure over the mid-section of the country, including Wisconsin. Likely, this will lead to sunny and dry weather. However, ECMWF model, which usually performs the best, advertises a train of small ridges and troughs, meaning periods of wet and dry weather. While it’s tough to tell what the weather will be like given the discrepancy, my gut feeling tells me this weekend will probably be dry, though a lingering shower or two is possible early Saturday from Friday’s rain.
Next week, above-average temperatures are likely, but rain is tough to pin-point at this time.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…
Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs
This post was written by Nick Grunseth on March 26, 2012