2012-2013 Winter Snowfall Totals for Eau Claire, WI

Technically, spring does not arrive until the morning of March 20th.  That’s the day when the sun will cross over the equator, from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere.  But in the meteorological world, winter is all done and spring is here!  Why not celebrate early?  I know many are ready for warmer temperatures and more daylight.

Before I provide details about this past winter, I want to clarify the difference between a normal season and a meteorological season.  Meteorologists look at seasons as three month blocks rather than using the more commonly known astronomical dates, such as December 21st and June 21st.  This is due to consistency.  For example, December 1st always begins at 12:00 AM, but the first day of winter is not always December 21st.  A consistent time frame allows meteorologists, climatologists, and other experts to fairly compare previous seasons.

For Eau Claire, the winter of 2012-2013 will go down as the 12th snowiest since the late 1800s.  It was also warmer than average, but nowhere near the top ten.  In total, 44.6″ of snow fell in Eau Claire, containing 4.42″ of precious rain equivalent.  I write “precious” because we all remember the drought our region faced last year.  According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, we are still experiencing a drought in western Wisconsin.  Hopefully, some long, gentle spring rains will give us a helping hand.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed!

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2012-2013 Winter Statistics

Average temperature: 18.7° (+1.1° compared to normal) – 30th warmest

Snowfall: 41.6″ (+11.6″ compared to normal) – 12th snowiest

Liquid precipitation, including meltwater: 4.42″ (+1.72″ compared to normal) – 17th wettest

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Cool.  If we were to experience average readings this week, we would need daytime highs around 60 and overnight lows near 35.  Unfortunately, much of our time the next few days will be below average.   On the flipside, our threat of severe weather will remain low and pesky bugs will be mininal.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For a current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Morning Rain/Snow, Highs: Low 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Wednesday – Showers Early, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Mid 60s
• Thursday – Mid-Day Showers, Highs: Near 50
• Friday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: Low 50s
• Saturday/Sunday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s

Aside from Monday morning’s snow, the highlight this week will be showers and thunderstorms before dawn Wednesday morning.

GFS model suggesting where ridge will be at 7 PM Monday.

Short-term, through Thursday… A mixed bag of weather is expected through Thursday, with periods of sun/clear sky and rain.  Two low pressure systems will affect the area.  The first, late Tuesday night, will kick up showers and isolated thunderstorms in the region, as a warm front lifts northeast.  The following cold front may spark isolated showers Wednesday morning.  In total, if the rain develops accordingly, the Chippewa Valley will pick up 1/10″ to 2/10″, or more.  A second low will pass just south of Wisconsin Thursday, but close enough that mid-day showers will plague the area.  The cloud cover and rain on Thursday will limit temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Long-term, Friday and this weekend… An upper-level ridge will build into the middle of the country this weekend, keeping our sky relatively clear.  This pattern will last into the first half of next week, according to the latest model runs.  Temperatures will begin cool this weekend, but gradually improve above average by the start of next week.

Have a great day and keep it tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

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Monday's Fire Danger

Dry.  I picked “dry” as this week’s word, not only because we will remain dry until this weekend, but also because of the dangerous fire conditions in western Wisconsin.  The Wisconsin DNR says the threat of fire danger is “very high” or “extreme” for the entire state.  Click HERE for a look at the current fire danger for Wisconsin.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For the current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Sunny, Windy, Highs: Upper 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Breezy at Times, Highs: Mid 40s
• Wednesday – Sunny, Highs: Low 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Low 60s
• Friday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Near 60
• Saturday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Upper 60s
• Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Mid 60s

This weekend, rain is a good bet.  It is hard to say exactly when the rain will affect us, but the models have been consistent on two systems sparking showers and thunderstorms.

Short-term, through Thursday…The biggest concern the next few days is a hard freeze during the overnights.  As Canadian high pressure gradually settles into the Upper Midwest, expect cooler than average temperatures Monday and Tuesday.  Thankfully, because of a lack of moisture in the low atmosphere, we will experience mostly sunny conditions.  On Monday and Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the 20s for several hours, alarming news for those with outdoor plants.  Wednesday morning will be cold too, but just below freezing.  Please, if you are able and this affects you, take necessary precautions to avoid damage.

Eventually, by Wednesday, the wind will lighten and turn south, laying the groundwork for a return to the 50s and 60s.  It will still be breezy at times.

GFS Precipitation Suggestion for 1 PM Friday, April 13

Long-term, Friday and this weekend…I am 80% or more confident it will rain this weekend, but *when* is the big question.  The two, most reliable long-range models suggest a warm front lifting north through the area on Friday.  However, there is a several hour difference in timing of the front, meaning a several hour difference in precipitation.  The two models are more consistent on Saturday night and possibly part of Sunday with alike forcing in the lower and higher levels of the atmosphere. 

After much research and thought, I think the first half of Friday will be wet, as well as Saturday evening and Sunday morning.  Between those times, a few showers or thunderstorms will certainly be possible, but it’s more likely much of the area will be dry.  The forecast models suggest anywhere of 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ of rain will fall this weekend.  This range will likely change, but it’s not unreasonable.  It would certainly be welcomed news for area fire officials and residents.

Have a great day and feel free to email me with questions: ngrunseth@wqow.com.  Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

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7 Day Forecast (Produced Monday, April 2 - AM)

Tranquil.  Aside from a few showers and isolated thunderstorms late Monday night and early Tuesday morning, a fairly quiet week is on tap for western Wisconsin with, yet again, above average temperatures.  However, we can not rule out one or two sub-freezing mornings in the area.

Below is the forecast prepared on Monday AM.  For more specifics and the most up-to-date info, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 60s
• Tuesday – Showers Very Early, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s
• Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Friday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Saturday/Sunday – Chance of Showers, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Upper 50s

The Easter holiday weekend looks decent; overall, nothing out of the ordinary in comparison to our recent weather trend.

Short-term, through this week…A weak low pressure area and incoming cold front will work to bring us a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday night.  The latest indications suggest most of the rain will track south, but not far enough to rule out rain for the Chippewa Valley.  This is good news considering the fire danger.  As of Monday, it is low to moderate, but a few days of dry weather will allow the threat to increase to high.

Canadian high pressure will settle in from the north late Tuesday, clearing out the sky and setting us up for a few quiet days.  While sunshine will be common, overnight lows will likely drop near or below freezing.  If you have any early growing or blooming plants, it will be a good idea to throw a blanket over those  on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights for the following mornings. 

GFS 850 mb Temps - Tuesday, April 10, 1 PM. Above the white line, the GFS model suggests readings at the ground could be in the 40s and 50s.

Long-term, for Easter weekend…It appears rain showers may pass through the area on Easter weekend, and if the timing is right, we cannot go without mentioning the slight potenial of non-accumulating snow.  An area of low pressure and potent mid-level trough will scoot across the northern tier of the U.S.  With a cold front dropping in later Saturday, I anticipate scattered showers and plenty of cloud cover.  *If* the activity lingers into Saturday night when temperatures cool into the lower/mid 30s, a few flakes may fall, especially in areas an hour’s drive north and east of Eau Claire.  No travel problems are expected.

Temperatures for next week may hold near average with the models suggesting a pool of cooler air nudging in from the northwest.  Hopefully, we will stay dry, at least during the overnights, as cooler air would allow for snow.  Personally, let’s leave the snow for next winter! 

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

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Unless something unbelievable and unexpected happens between now and the stroke of midnight Saturday night, the month of March 2012 will go down as the warmest on record for Eau Claire.  The numbers are not even close compared to previous Marches.  Check out the stats below:

Warmest Marches and Average Temp. for that Month

1. **2012 – 47.9°
2. 1910 – 44.6°
3. 1946 – 41.9°
4. 1973 – 39.7°
5. 1945/2010 – 39.6°

** – In Progress

Top Five Warmest Marches for Eau Claire

The list above is ordered from highest to lowest in overall average temperature.  Basically, take every hourly observation from 12 AM March 1st through midnight March 31st and find the average.  A three degree difference between 2012 and 1910 is impressive, but it gets better!  Read the next two paragraphs and you will understand why.

March 1910 still holds on to the title of warmest high temperature average with 58.3°, but barely.  March 2012 is close behind at 57.7°.  This statistic will remain the same, unless our daytime high is above 83° Saturday afternoon. 

So how will March 2012 overall be significantly warmer than March 1910?  The average low temperature for March 2012 is 38.1°, a tremendous seven degrees warmer compared to March 1910′s 30.9° average.  In fact, March 1948 is the second warmest on record at 31.8°.  Maple syrup producers around the area will tell you this spring was the worst sapping season they can ever recall.  With only 11 mornings below freezing this month, that’s not surprising.  1910 was slightly better with 18 mornings at or below freezing.

Finally, I can’t go without mentioning the number of new temperature records established this month.  Ten daytime high records were logged, while eleven warmest, overnight lows were recorded.  That’s a total of 21 temperature records! 

What we have witnessed this month as far as temperature is unprecedented.  It will likely be several years, or a lifetime, before this happens again in our area.  Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

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Beginning this week, I’m starting something new on my weather blog that I hope you will enjoy and find valuable.  It’s called “Week in a Word.”  Basically, each Monday, I will lay out the forecast for the entire week and explain why I’m convinced it will be warmer, colder, wetter, drier, etc.  Yes, I guess I could have called this “Your Week’s Forecast,” but even I know that sounds boring.  Really, let’s make it fun and sum it all up in one word!

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Tuesday's Forecast Highs

Wild.  This week will be wild, especially from the start.  It will not be wild because of a huge, nasty winter storm; rather, the wind and roller “coastering” temperatures will be the top two weather conversation pieces.

Below is the forecast prepared Monday AM.  For more specifics, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny and Windy, Highs: 70s
• Wednesday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s
• Friday – Showers Possible, Highs: Upper 40s/50s
• Saturday & Sunday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: 60s

Off the bat, you probably see why I write the beginning of the week will feature roller “coastering” temperatures.

Short-term, through Wednesday…An area of low pressure will slide out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday, intensifying along the way.  Ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through western Wisconsin, turning winds from the east to the south Tuesday morning.  With the front and other low-level forcing factors, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late Monday and very early Tuesday.  The best chance of thunder will be far to the south; I expect most of the WQOW viewing area to experience periods of light rain.

Back to the wind – the wind will be quite strong at times, Monday through Wednesday, due to a tight pressure gradient.  (In short, a tight pressure gradient means a large difference in air pressure over a small distance, which results in strong winds.)  On Tuesday afternoon, the combination of sunshine, a strong south wind, a warm air mass aloft and the mixing of drier air should allow the temperature to rise into the lower 70s, about 25 degrees above our average.  This taste of summer will be short-lived, thanks to a cold front dropping into the region Tuesday night.  No precipitation is expected at this time.  On Wednesday, highs closer to seasonal averages will be common.

Overall, I don’t see to many variations in the short-term forecast.  You may notice temperatures raised/lowered a degree or two, and the slight possibility of thunder in our area.  Honestly, the models do not suggest the appropriate environment for thunderstorms.

GFS: Jetstream Position at 7 PM Saturday

Long-term, into this weekend…Thursday looks quiet, but Friday and this weekend is tricky.  The two forecast models we rely on the most, the GFS and the ECMWF, have differing opinions on how the weather will play out.  The GFS suggests a fast-moving trough passing through Wisconsin early Friday, triggering some rain for our area.  It then develops a ridge of high pressure over the mid-section of the country, including Wisconsin.  Likely, this will lead to sunny and dry weather.  However, ECMWF model, which usually performs the best, advertises a train of small ridges and troughs, meaning periods of wet and dry weather.  While it’s tough to tell what the weather will be like given the discrepancy, my gut feeling tells me this weekend will probably be dry, though a lingering shower or two is possible early Saturday from Friday’s rain.

Next week, above-average temperatures are likely, but rain is tough to pin-point at this time.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

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You normally don’t think of grass fires in February or early March.  Well, at least I don’t.  In the middle of February, there is usually several inches of snow on the ground, and reaching 30 degrees can be a milestone!

But this winter, as most of you know, as been nothing but ordinary.  Right now, there’s less than an inch of snow on the ground in most of the Chippewa Valley.  With just a chance of a couple inches of snow on the horizon, it won’t be too long until any cover will be reduced to a few piles of snow.  (If not already in your area!)  Being that it’s my duty to always ”look past the stop sign,” the lack of snow concerns me.  A little sunshine and wind will quickly dry the bare ground, increasing the fire danger in western Wisconsin.  And, with the lower sun angle in the sky, a slow onset of spring opens a bigger window of opportunity for grass, brush, and other types of outdoor fires.

I had the wonderful opportunity to talk with DNR firefighters about fire danger.  In my conversation with one of the firefighters, I learned something interesting: quelling dangerous fire conditions doesn’t solely depend on how much, or frequently, it rains or snows.  Rather, it relies on the greening of the fuels: the grass, brush, trees, etc.  Of course, precipitation helps green vegetation faster.  But in the end, if the moisture is not locked into the plants, a good dose of sunshine and a little wind easily wicks away the moisture, turning the fire threat from low to high.

Current Fire Danger --- Courtesy: WI DNR

Preventing wildfires, for the most part, comes down to plain old common sense.  Obviously, if you intend to burn, you need to obtain a burning permit from your local fire warden.  The warden should be able to inform you if it’s safe to burn or not.  It’s YOUR responsibility to monitor what’s known as “fire weather” conditions.  If the threat is “high” or “extreme” for your county, you shouldn’t even think about lighting a match.  Hot cigarette butts (please don’t litter!) and sparks from train wheels can also start fires.  Obviously, the latter of these two can’t easily be prevented, but it just shows how something so small can turn into such a big problem.

So, this spring, think ahead!  Hopefully, we’ll receive some snow within the next two to three weeks to lessen the threat.  That way, when it’s ready, spring will set in and the green-up will begin!  Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Click here for more information about wildfires and to see a map of the current fire danger in Wisconsin.

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There’s no doubting it.  Thursday morning was extremely cold in western Wisconsin.  Sure, there are times during the winter when the temperature overnight tumbles into the double digits below zero.  But when you add a decent wind into the equation, the situation turns from plain cold to dangerous.  Wind chills of -25 to -30 were recorded across western Wisconsin during the early morning hours.  In those conditions, a person not dressed properly would have experienced frostbite or hypothermia in a matter of minutes.

In my opinion, our forecast regarding the dangerous cold came with ample warning time.  We continued to provide updates during the coldest period, letting the public know what to expect and how long the danger would last.  You may have noticed though no cold weather advisories or warnings were issued by the National Weather Service for the Chippewa Valley.  The reason: a new experimental program that ditches the Wind Chill Advisory and Wind Chill Warning for the “Extreme Cold Warning.”

Figure 1 - Warnings/Advisories for night of 1/18/2012

Thursday Morning's Wind Chills (1/19/2012)

In summary, Eau Claire would have been included in a Wind Chill Advisory in the past.  But because “Wind Chill Advisory” does not exist in the Chanhassen “language” anymore, no cold weather alerts were issued, even though wind chills were just as cold compared to locations in the Wind Chill Advisory, like Medford, Neillsville, Osseo and Mondovi.

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather

As you know, salt is a life saver during the snowy months.  For most of us, the reason is self-explanatory: it helps clear up the ice, making way for safer travel by vehicle or by foot.

But salt doesn’t always work.  In fact, there are a few times during the year road crews will stop spreading salt and will start using sand.  Of course, the switch only goes so far.  The roads are still in rough traveling shape, because no matter how much sand is dispersed, the ice is always present.

So why does salt not always work?  Well, salt doesn’t melt ice through some kind of special chemical reaction.  Salt, or sodium chloride as it’s known as a chemical compound, lowers the freezing point of water, from 32°F to near 0°F.  When tossed onto ice, the melting process begins immediately.  At first, a layer of water forms around the salt crystals.  Over time, the salt slowly dissolves into the water, creating a saltwater solution.  This increases the rate of melting.  In other words, once you spread salt, the process just kind of snowballs until the ice is gone.

There are a few products for sale that lower the freezing point of water colder than 0F.  Some communities and private organizations have used these products, and there’s been a lot of success.  However, it you’re a county or city on a tight budget, the goal is the most bang for your buck.  You never know how much snow will fall, or if old man winter will take a spring vacation to the Midwest.

So, when you head out and the temperture is below zero, especially after a snow storm, know that there’s going to be a lot of ice on the roads.  Thankfully, the ice won’t be as slippery compared to when it’s warmer outside.  That’s a topic for another blog post coming up later this winter.

Check out this video: Salt vs. Bitter-cold.  A blast from the past, from my first time working at WQOW!  This story aired on January 18, 2008.  The expertise is provided by Mike Barnhardt, Street Maintenance Manager, now retired.  I was only four months on the job…you’ll notice I may be a little green yet!   But the point remains the same.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!  Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather

9:20 AM, January 12.  Temperature: 11°, wind chill: -1°.

Yes, it does feel cold outside!  With highs today only reaching the middle teens and strong northwest winds, some would say it’s downright brutal outside.

This certainly isn’t the coldest weather we’ve experienced in the Chippewa Valley.  In fact, our low temperature average for this time of the year is 5°, while our average high is 23°.  But with readings in the 40s and low 50s earlier this week, you can’t help but feel chilled to the bone!  At least I do.  I don’t mind the snow, but I really don’t like the colder weather, especially when the utility bill comes.  There must be a mouse or a hamster spinning that wheel for me in the electric meter…

The talk about arctic air’s return has me thinking about something we haven’t discussed much this winter: wind chill.  The last few years, wind chill readings from -15° to -30° were not unheard of in western Wisconsin.  This year, as you know, it’s a different story.  But as I take a quick look at the long range temperature projections, I can tell you wind chill is something we’ll have to get a little more used to again.

Wind Chill Chart --- Courtesy: National Weather Service

Most have a basic understanding of wind chill, but if you don’t, that’s perfectly fine.  In short, the colder and winder conditions are, the colder it feels outside.  Check out the chart on the left, courtesy of the National Weather Service.  If the morning temperature is 0° and the wind is northwest at 15 mph, the wind chill is -19°.   Hopefully never this case, but -20° with a 15 mph wind, the wind chill will be -45°.  Why is the wind chill important?  If you study the chart, you’ll see different colors.  Frostbite can always occur anytime the temperature is below freezing, but it the process is much quicker when the wind chill is -18° or colder.

I’ll end today’s blog post with a trivia question I hope you’ll take a stab at.  Even if you don’t have a clue, don’t be afraid to chime in explaining how the cold affects you.  I would love to hear from you, and part of my job is helping people understand weather.  And, no cheating!   Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

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