Droughts are nothing new to Wisconsin and the United States.  In fact, nearly every year, at least one portion of the country experiences drought, whether it is moderate, severe, or extreme.  Droughts are caused by a long period of little to no rainfall.  They are quiet – no damaged buildings, uprooted trees, or twisted scraps of metal.  So it may be surprising to know widespread droughts can cause as much damage as a powerful hurricane making landfall near a major coastal city.

As of early October 2012, no official dollar amount has yet been assigned to the 2012 drought.  But a few experts around the country have come up with a ballpark figure after analyzing the impacts.  Chris Hurt, an economist at Purdue University, was recently quoted in The Madison Courier suggesting the 2012 drought will cost $77 billion.  If that is true, when adjusting for inflation, the drought of 2012 will cost nearly the same amount as the drought of 1988.  Some economists argue it will cost more.  Regardless, it is unbelievable to think how a long-term weather pattern like can put us in such a bad position.

Obviously, it is too late for farmers who hoped for a nice crop.  But there is help available through the USDA’s Drought and Drought Assistance program.  If you, or someone you know needs more information, please don’t hesitate to share this post.

Outlook:

GFS model's precipitation forecast - 1:00 AM Sunday, October 14, 2012 --- Image courtesy of College of DuPage

A bit of good news: some decent rain is expected this weekend! (October 13 & 14)  The forecast models have been consistent on bringing an area of low pressure through the middle U.S. and into the Great Lakes region.  Rain totals could range from 1/4″ to 1″+, depending on how much moisture the low draws north from the Gulf of Mexico.  This will certainly help our drought, but it will not eliminate it.  We need frequent periods of rainfall and a nice snow cover this winter.  Speaking of winter, a month ago, indications were El Niño would develop in the eastern Pacific, forcing our weather pattern into a drier and milder state during the upcoming season.  El Niño has not yet formed, meaning we could see more of a “normal” winter in the area.  Time will certainly provide all the answers.  Much of our weather also depends on ocean osscilations.

Thanks for reading and keep visiting for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

It is not a complete surprise when I tell you this year has been incredibly warm in western Wisconsin.  In January, we experienced highs in the 50s, 80s were recorded in March, and July was just plain old hot.  But even after compiling the data, it’s still a shock to put one number to it all and compare it to previous years. 

Since the first of the year, Eau Claire’s overall average temperature is 52.3 degrees, good enough to put 2012 in a pending first place in the record books.  Of course, there is still five months to go before the log book closes.  Still, we are currently about one degree warmer than the #2 spot of 51.4 degrees in 2006, and the climate average of 47.2 degrees.  For 2012 to end near the climate average, we would need long periods of significantly below average temperatures, and I don’t foresee anything of that sort.

Figure 1: Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Forecast --- Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

Looking deeper into the data, we will also find that 2012 currently holds first place for the warmest average low temperature.  This is quite intriguing.  On one hand, we can say daytime high temperatures are the cause behind our extreme warmth.  But, it comes with help from the other hand – warm overnight lows.  If temperatures are not cooling at night, it is just a big head-start for the next day.  Do you recall a number of mornings when the temperature was around 70 degrees?  Eau Claire highest climate averages are 83 for a high and 61 for a low.

Looking ahead, there is a good chance the mild weather will stick around through this winter. (Figure 1)  The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the likelihood of above average temperatures this winter due to the possible onset of El Niño.  Less precipitation may also fall this winter.  While the forecast has to be taken with a grain of salt, it would not be surprising to me to see winter pan out warmer and drier than average.  In my experience, when certain temperature patterns take shape like the one we have been experiencing, it may take several months to break.

Thank you for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

My friend asked me the other day, after looking at a cooler forecast with 70s and 80s, if summer was gone. 

 ”Summer gone?”  I jokingly responded, “not until September 22.” 

September 22nd is the day when summer officially ends and autumn begins.  Of course, I knew what my friend was asking.  He wanted to know if any more hot stretches of weather were in the distant future because his wallet was hurting.  I don’t blame him, because I am in the same boat.  I almost called the electric company to ask if the decimal point was in the wrong place! 

Thankfully, I’m proud to report our chances of prolonged heat are waning.  While a short stretch of 90 degree days cannot be ruled out, we will not witness another long period of hot weather this season comparable to the stretch from June 27 to August 3rd.  First, the heat stretch was impressive by itself.  We completed July 2012 with a mean temperature of 71.6°, good enough for #2 on the list of warmest Julys in Eau Claire since 1950.  Second, based on climate averages, we have passed our warmest point of the year.  Typically, the second and third weeks of July are the warmest with an average high of 83° and an average low of 61°.  With daylight slowly slipping away from us, the odds are not in our favor.

Classic El Niño Pattern

Many are wondering what is around the corner.  In short, when considering the overall trend, we will likely remain near or above average into the winter season.  Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are watching the central Pacific closely.  There is a chance another El Niño event will develop in the coming months.  During an El Niño event, warmer Pacific waters off of South America can modify the upper air pattern in favor of mild weather for the Midwest.  We could also experience drier conditions.

The El Niño talk does come with a literal word of caution: osscilation, as in ocean oscillation.  Last winter was a La Niña winter, which typically brings cooler weather to the Midwest.  But as you know, last winter was quite mild in the area!  That’s because the North Atlantic Osscilation (NAO) was in a strongly positive phase.  The NAO, combined with other factors, turned the tables on La Niña and our weather pattern in western Wisconsin.  Thus, ocean osscilations must be taken into consideration.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs