7 Day Forecast (Produced Monday, April 2 - AM)

Tranquil.  Aside from a few showers and isolated thunderstorms late Monday night and early Tuesday morning, a fairly quiet week is on tap for western Wisconsin with, yet again, above average temperatures.  However, we can not rule out one or two sub-freezing mornings in the area.

Below is the forecast prepared on Monday AM.  For more specifics and the most up-to-date info, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 60s
• Tuesday – Showers Very Early, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s
• Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s/Low 60s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Friday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Saturday/Sunday – Chance of Showers, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Upper 50s

The Easter holiday weekend looks decent; overall, nothing out of the ordinary in comparison to our recent weather trend.

Short-term, through this week…A weak low pressure area and incoming cold front will work to bring us a few showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday night.  The latest indications suggest most of the rain will track south, but not far enough to rule out rain for the Chippewa Valley.  This is good news considering the fire danger.  As of Monday, it is low to moderate, but a few days of dry weather will allow the threat to increase to high.

Canadian high pressure will settle in from the north late Tuesday, clearing out the sky and setting us up for a few quiet days.  While sunshine will be common, overnight lows will likely drop near or below freezing.  If you have any early growing or blooming plants, it will be a good idea to throw a blanket over those  on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights for the following mornings. 

GFS 850 mb Temps - Tuesday, April 10, 1 PM. Above the white line, the GFS model suggests readings at the ground could be in the 40s and 50s.

Long-term, for Easter weekend…It appears rain showers may pass through the area on Easter weekend, and if the timing is right, we cannot go without mentioning the slight potenial of non-accumulating snow.  An area of low pressure and potent mid-level trough will scoot across the northern tier of the U.S.  With a cold front dropping in later Saturday, I anticipate scattered showers and plenty of cloud cover.  *If* the activity lingers into Saturday night when temperatures cool into the lower/mid 30s, a few flakes may fall, especially in areas an hour’s drive north and east of Eau Claire.  No travel problems are expected.

Temperatures for next week may hold near average with the models suggesting a pool of cooler air nudging in from the northwest.  Hopefully, we will stay dry, at least during the overnights, as cooler air would allow for snow.  Personally, let’s leave the snow for next winter! 

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

Beginning this week, I’m starting something new on my weather blog that I hope you will enjoy and find valuable.  It’s called “Week in a Word.”  Basically, each Monday, I will lay out the forecast for the entire week and explain why I’m convinced it will be warmer, colder, wetter, drier, etc.  Yes, I guess I could have called this “Your Week’s Forecast,” but even I know that sounds boring.  Really, let’s make it fun and sum it all up in one word!

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Tuesday's Forecast Highs

Wild.  This week will be wild, especially from the start.  It will not be wild because of a huge, nasty winter storm; rather, the wind and roller “coastering” temperatures will be the top two weather conversation pieces.

Below is the forecast prepared Monday AM.  For more specifics, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny and Windy, Highs: 70s
• Wednesday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s
• Friday – Showers Possible, Highs: Upper 40s/50s
• Saturday & Sunday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: 60s

Off the bat, you probably see why I write the beginning of the week will feature roller “coastering” temperatures.

Short-term, through Wednesday…An area of low pressure will slide out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday, intensifying along the way.  Ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through western Wisconsin, turning winds from the east to the south Tuesday morning.  With the front and other low-level forcing factors, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late Monday and very early Tuesday.  The best chance of thunder will be far to the south; I expect most of the WQOW viewing area to experience periods of light rain.

Back to the wind – the wind will be quite strong at times, Monday through Wednesday, due to a tight pressure gradient.  (In short, a tight pressure gradient means a large difference in air pressure over a small distance, which results in strong winds.)  On Tuesday afternoon, the combination of sunshine, a strong south wind, a warm air mass aloft and the mixing of drier air should allow the temperature to rise into the lower 70s, about 25 degrees above our average.  This taste of summer will be short-lived, thanks to a cold front dropping into the region Tuesday night.  No precipitation is expected at this time.  On Wednesday, highs closer to seasonal averages will be common.

Overall, I don’t see to many variations in the short-term forecast.  You may notice temperatures raised/lowered a degree or two, and the slight possibility of thunder in our area.  Honestly, the models do not suggest the appropriate environment for thunderstorms.

GFS: Jetstream Position at 7 PM Saturday

Long-term, into this weekend…Thursday looks quiet, but Friday and this weekend is tricky.  The two forecast models we rely on the most, the GFS and the ECMWF, have differing opinions on how the weather will play out.  The GFS suggests a fast-moving trough passing through Wisconsin early Friday, triggering some rain for our area.  It then develops a ridge of high pressure over the mid-section of the country, including Wisconsin.  Likely, this will lead to sunny and dry weather.  However, ECMWF model, which usually performs the best, advertises a train of small ridges and troughs, meaning periods of wet and dry weather.  While it’s tough to tell what the weather will be like given the discrepancy, my gut feeling tells me this weekend will probably be dry, though a lingering shower or two is possible early Saturday from Friday’s rain.

Next week, above-average temperatures are likely, but rain is tough to pin-point at this time.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs