Monday's Fire Danger

Dry.  I picked “dry” as this week’s word, not only because we will remain dry until this weekend, but also because of the dangerous fire conditions in western Wisconsin.  The Wisconsin DNR says the threat of fire danger is “very high” or “extreme” for the entire state.  Click HERE for a look at the current fire danger for Wisconsin.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For the current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Sunny, Windy, Highs: Upper 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Breezy at Times, Highs: Mid 40s
• Wednesday – Sunny, Highs: Low 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Low 60s
• Friday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Near 60
• Saturday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Upper 60s
• Sunday – Mostly Cloudy, Showers and Thunderstorms, Highs: Mid 60s

This weekend, rain is a good bet.  It is hard to say exactly when the rain will affect us, but the models have been consistent on two systems sparking showers and thunderstorms.

Short-term, through Thursday…The biggest concern the next few days is a hard freeze during the overnights.  As Canadian high pressure gradually settles into the Upper Midwest, expect cooler than average temperatures Monday and Tuesday.  Thankfully, because of a lack of moisture in the low atmosphere, we will experience mostly sunny conditions.  On Monday and Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the 20s for several hours, alarming news for those with outdoor plants.  Wednesday morning will be cold too, but just below freezing.  Please, if you are able and this affects you, take necessary precautions to avoid damage.

Eventually, by Wednesday, the wind will lighten and turn south, laying the groundwork for a return to the 50s and 60s.  It will still be breezy at times.

GFS Precipitation Suggestion for 1 PM Friday, April 13

Long-term, Friday and this weekend…I am 80% or more confident it will rain this weekend, but *when* is the big question.  The two, most reliable long-range models suggest a warm front lifting north through the area on Friday.  However, there is a several hour difference in timing of the front, meaning a several hour difference in precipitation.  The two models are more consistent on Saturday night and possibly part of Sunday with alike forcing in the lower and higher levels of the atmosphere. 

After much research and thought, I think the first half of Friday will be wet, as well as Saturday evening and Sunday morning.  Between those times, a few showers or thunderstorms will certainly be possible, but it’s more likely much of the area will be dry.  The forecast models suggest anywhere of 1/2″ to 1 1/2″ of rain will fall this weekend.  This range will likely change, but it’s not unreasonable.  It would certainly be welcomed news for area fire officials and residents.

Have a great day and feel free to email me with questions: ngrunseth@wqow.com.  Stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs