It is not a complete surprise when I tell you this year has been incredibly warm in western Wisconsin.  In January, we experienced highs in the 50s, 80s were recorded in March, and July was just plain old hot.  But even after compiling the data, it’s still a shock to put one number to it all and compare it to previous years. 

Since the first of the year, Eau Claire’s overall average temperature is 52.3 degrees, good enough to put 2012 in a pending first place in the record books.  Of course, there is still five months to go before the log book closes.  Still, we are currently about one degree warmer than the #2 spot of 51.4 degrees in 2006, and the climate average of 47.2 degrees.  For 2012 to end near the climate average, we would need long periods of significantly below average temperatures, and I don’t foresee anything of that sort.

Figure 1: Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Forecast --- Courtesy: Climate Prediction Center

Looking deeper into the data, we will also find that 2012 currently holds first place for the warmest average low temperature.  This is quite intriguing.  On one hand, we can say daytime high temperatures are the cause behind our extreme warmth.  But, it comes with help from the other hand – warm overnight lows.  If temperatures are not cooling at night, it is just a big head-start for the next day.  Do you recall a number of mornings when the temperature was around 70 degrees?  Eau Claire highest climate averages are 83 for a high and 61 for a low.

Looking ahead, there is a good chance the mild weather will stick around through this winter. (Figure 1)  The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the likelihood of above average temperatures this winter due to the possible onset of El Niño.  Less precipitation may also fall this winter.  While the forecast has to be taken with a grain of salt, it would not be surprising to me to see winter pan out warmer and drier than average.  In my experience, when certain temperature patterns take shape like the one we have been experiencing, it may take several months to break.

Thank you for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

Unless something unbelievable and unexpected happens between now and the stroke of midnight Saturday night, the month of March 2012 will go down as the warmest on record for Eau Claire.  The numbers are not even close compared to previous Marches.  Check out the stats below:

Warmest Marches and Average Temp. for that Month

1. **2012 – 47.9°
2. 1910 – 44.6°
3. 1946 – 41.9°
4. 1973 – 39.7°
5. 1945/2010 – 39.6°

** – In Progress

Top Five Warmest Marches for Eau Claire

The list above is ordered from highest to lowest in overall average temperature.  Basically, take every hourly observation from 12 AM March 1st through midnight March 31st and find the average.  A three degree difference between 2012 and 1910 is impressive, but it gets better!  Read the next two paragraphs and you will understand why.

March 1910 still holds on to the title of warmest high temperature average with 58.3°, but barely.  March 2012 is close behind at 57.7°.  This statistic will remain the same, unless our daytime high is above 83° Saturday afternoon. 

So how will March 2012 overall be significantly warmer than March 1910?  The average low temperature for March 2012 is 38.1°, a tremendous seven degrees warmer compared to March 1910′s 30.9° average.  In fact, March 1948 is the second warmest on record at 31.8°.  Maple syrup producers around the area will tell you this spring was the worst sapping season they can ever recall.  With only 11 mornings below freezing this month, that’s not surprising.  1910 was slightly better with 18 mornings at or below freezing.

Finally, I can’t go without mentioning the number of new temperature records established this month.  Ten daytime high records were logged, while eleven warmest, overnight lows were recorded.  That’s a total of 21 temperature records! 

What we have witnessed this month as far as temperature is unprecedented.  It will likely be several years, or a lifetime, before this happens again in our area.  Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs