Cool.  If we were to experience average readings this week, we would need daytime highs around 60 and overnight lows near 35.  Unfortunately, much of our time the next few days will be below average.   On the flipside, our threat of severe weather will remain low and pesky bugs will be mininal.

Here’s a look at this week’s forecast.  For a current, up-to-date forecast, click HERE.

• Monday – Morning Rain/Snow, Highs: Low 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: Upper 50s
• Wednesday – Showers Early, Partly Cloudy, Highs: Mid 60s
• Thursday – Mid-Day Showers, Highs: Near 50
• Friday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: Low 50s
• Saturday/Sunday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s

Aside from Monday morning’s snow, the highlight this week will be showers and thunderstorms before dawn Wednesday morning.

GFS model suggesting where ridge will be at 7 PM Monday.

Short-term, through Thursday… A mixed bag of weather is expected through Thursday, with periods of sun/clear sky and rain.  Two low pressure systems will affect the area.  The first, late Tuesday night, will kick up showers and isolated thunderstorms in the region, as a warm front lifts northeast.  The following cold front may spark isolated showers Wednesday morning.  In total, if the rain develops accordingly, the Chippewa Valley will pick up 1/10″ to 2/10″, or more.  A second low will pass just south of Wisconsin Thursday, but close enough that mid-day showers will plague the area.  The cloud cover and rain on Thursday will limit temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Long-term, Friday and this weekend… An upper-level ridge will build into the middle of the country this weekend, keeping our sky relatively clear.  This pattern will last into the first half of next week, according to the latest model runs.  Temperatures will begin cool this weekend, but gradually improve above average by the start of next week.

Have a great day and keep it tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs

Beginning this week, I’m starting something new on my weather blog that I hope you will enjoy and find valuable.  It’s called “Week in a Word.”  Basically, each Monday, I will lay out the forecast for the entire week and explain why I’m convinced it will be warmer, colder, wetter, drier, etc.  Yes, I guess I could have called this “Your Week’s Forecast,” but even I know that sounds boring.  Really, let’s make it fun and sum it all up in one word!

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Tuesday's Forecast Highs

Wild.  This week will be wild, especially from the start.  It will not be wild because of a huge, nasty winter storm; rather, the wind and roller “coastering” temperatures will be the top two weather conversation pieces.

Below is the forecast prepared Monday AM.  For more specifics, please launch our weather page by clicking HERE.

• Monday – Mostly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 40s
• Tuesday – Mostly Sunny and Windy, Highs: 70s
• Wednesday – Partly Cloudy and Breezy, Highs: 50s
• Thursday – Mostly Sunny, Highs: 50s
• Friday – Showers Possible, Highs: Upper 40s/50s
• Saturday & Sunday – Partly Cloudy, Highs: 60s

Off the bat, you probably see why I write the beginning of the week will feature roller “coastering” temperatures.

Short-term, through Wednesday…An area of low pressure will slide out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains on Monday, intensifying along the way.  Ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through western Wisconsin, turning winds from the east to the south Tuesday morning.  With the front and other low-level forcing factors, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop late Monday and very early Tuesday.  The best chance of thunder will be far to the south; I expect most of the WQOW viewing area to experience periods of light rain.

Back to the wind – the wind will be quite strong at times, Monday through Wednesday, due to a tight pressure gradient.  (In short, a tight pressure gradient means a large difference in air pressure over a small distance, which results in strong winds.)  On Tuesday afternoon, the combination of sunshine, a strong south wind, a warm air mass aloft and the mixing of drier air should allow the temperature to rise into the lower 70s, about 25 degrees above our average.  This taste of summer will be short-lived, thanks to a cold front dropping into the region Tuesday night.  No precipitation is expected at this time.  On Wednesday, highs closer to seasonal averages will be common.

Overall, I don’t see to many variations in the short-term forecast.  You may notice temperatures raised/lowered a degree or two, and the slight possibility of thunder in our area.  Honestly, the models do not suggest the appropriate environment for thunderstorms.

GFS: Jetstream Position at 7 PM Saturday

Long-term, into this weekend…Thursday looks quiet, but Friday and this weekend is tricky.  The two forecast models we rely on the most, the GFS and the ECMWF, have differing opinions on how the weather will play out.  The GFS suggests a fast-moving trough passing through Wisconsin early Friday, triggering some rain for our area.  It then develops a ridge of high pressure over the mid-section of the country, including Wisconsin.  Likely, this will lead to sunny and dry weather.  However, ECMWF model, which usually performs the best, advertises a train of small ridges and troughs, meaning periods of wet and dry weather.  While it’s tough to tell what the weather will be like given the discrepancy, my gut feeling tells me this weekend will probably be dry, though a lingering shower or two is possible early Saturday from Friday’s rain.

Next week, above-average temperatures are likely, but rain is tough to pin-point at this time.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more from Beyond the Forecast…

Posted under Hometown Weather, Weather, Weblogs